基于改进蚁群算法的区域科技成果转化率预测研究  

Research on the Conversion Rate Prediction of Regional Scientific and Technological Achievements Based on Improved Ant Colony Algorithm

作　　者：刘迎立 LIU Yingli(Institute of Scientific and Technological Achievement Transformation,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing,100083 China)

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学科技成果转化研究院,北京100083

出　　处：《科技资讯》2025年第1期241-243,共3页Science & Technology Information

摘　　要：科技成果转化率预测是区域科技管理和决策工作中必不可少的环节,由于当前方法的预测精度较低,无法达到预期效果,所以,提出了基于改进蚁群算法的区域科技成果转化率预测方法。采用指数平滑法构建区域科技成果转化率预测模型,通过调整信息素在路径选择中的影响比例来改进蚁群路径选择机制,利用改进蚁群算法对预测模型参数优化实现区域科技成果转化率预测。实验证明,改进后的设计方法预测标准误差不超过0.1,预测与真实关联度在96%以上,预测效果好。Conversion rate prediction of scientific and technological achievements is an essential link in regional scientific and technological management and decision-making.However,the prediction accuracy of current methods is low,and the expected results cannot be achieved.Therefore,a regional scientific and technological achievements conversion rate prediction method based on improved Ant Colony algorithm is proposed.Exponential Smoothing method is used to build a regional scientific and technological achievements conversion rate prediction model,and the ant colony path selection mechanism is improved by adjusting the influence ratio of pheromones in path selection.The improved ant colony algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of the prediction model to realize the regional scientific and technological achievements conversion rate prediction.The experimental results show that the standard error of prediction by the design method is less than 0.1,and the correlation between prediction and truth is above 96%,and the prediction effect is good.

关 键 词：改进蚁群算法 科技成果 转化率预测 指数平滑法 路径选择机制 

分 类 号：F224.9[经济管理—国民经济]