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作 者:谢航 张书瑞 张庭婷[2] 谢晓敏[2,4] XIE Hang;ZHANG Shurui;ZHANG Tingting;XIE Xiaomin(College of Smart Energy,Shanghai Jiaotong University,Shanghai 200240,China;Research Institute of Carbon Neutrality,Shanghai Jiaotong University,Shanghai 200030,China;China-UK Low Carbon College,Shanghai Jiaotong University,Shanghai 201306,China;School of Mechanical Engineering,Shanghai Jiaotong University,Shanghai 200240,China)
机构地区:[1]上海交通大学智慧能源创新学院,上海200240 [2]上海交通大学碳中和发展研究院,上海200030 [3]上海交通大学中英国际低碳学院,上海201306 [4]上海交通大学机械与动力工程学院,上海200240
出 处:《汽车工程学报》2025年第1期1-10,共10页Chinese Journal of Automotive Engineering
摘 要:新能源汽车作为交通运输领域节能减排的重点,近年来的迅速发展导致其对锂、钴、镍、锰等电池材料的需求剧增。为评估相关资源的供应风险,基于Gompertz曲线模型和物质流分析的方法,对两种电池技术发展情景下中国2023—2050年新能源乘用车电池材料的需求进行了预测。结果显示,在磷酸铁锂电池路线(LFPR)下,2050年锂、钴、镍、锰的需求将分别达到238、169、362、158千吨;在三元锂电池路线(NMCR)下,2050年锂、钴、镍、锰的需求将分别达到242、201、1084、187千吨。当前中国锂、钴、镍的产能将难以满足未来新能源汽车发展的需要。2050年的回收锂、回收钴和回收镍将至少能分别满足86.5%、93.5%和65.8%的新增需求。鉴于国内目前还缺乏有关废电池回收的全面法律法规,制定相关标准势在必行。The rapid development of new energy vehicles has dramatically increased the demand for battery materials such as lithium,cobalt,nickel,and manganese.To assess the supply risks of these resources,the demand for battery materials in China's new energy passenger vehicles from 2023 to 2050 was predicted using the Gompertz curve model and material flow analysis,under two different scenarios of battery technology development.The results indicate that by 2050,under the lithium iron phosphate route(LFPR),the demand for lithium,cobalt,nickel,and manganese will be 238,169,362,158 kilotons,respectively.Under the nickel-manganese-cobalt(NMC)lithium battery route,the estimated demands will reach 242,201,1084,187 kilotons,respectively.Recycled lithium,cobalt and nickel in 2050 are expected to meet at least 86.5%,93.5%and 65.8%of their annual demand,respectively.Given the current lack of comprehensive laws and regulations for waste battery recycling in China,it is essential to develop relevant standards.
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