Economic effect of China's carbon neutrality target under shared socioeconomic pathways  

作　　者：Zemiao LIU Xianjin HUANG Xinxian QI 

机构地区：[1]School of Geography and Ocean Science,Nanjing University,Nanjing,210023,China [2]Key Laboratory of Carbon Neutrality and Territory Optimization,Ministry of Natural Resources,Nanjing,210023,China [3]Frontiers Science Center for Critical Earth Material Cycling,Nanjing University,Nanjing,210023,China

出　　处：《Science China Earth Sciences》2025年第1期142-157,共16页中国科学(地球科学英文版)

基　　金：supported by the National Social Science Foundation Major Project(Grant No.23&ZD099);the National Natural Science Foundation Innovation Group Project(Grant No.71921003);the National Natural Science Foundation Youth Project(Grant No.42201301);the Jiangsu Carbon Peak Carbon Neutral Science and Technology Innovation Special Fund Project(Grant No.BK20220037);the Energy Foundation Grant Project(Grant No.G-2304-34498);the Central University Basic Research Expenses Project(Grant No.0209/14380116)。

摘　　要：Economic feasibility is crucial for achieving the carbon neutrality target.However,current integrated assessments often underestimate the economic impacts of mitigation policies due to the lack of consideration of their economic benefits.This study integrates a warming-labour productivity model with a typical integrated assessment model using shared socioeconomic pathways.It simulates China's economic development and carbon emission levels under both baseline and carbon-neutral policy scenarios,evaluating the economic costs and benefits of emission reduction policies aimed at achieving carbon neutrality.These findings reveal the following:(1)The economic costs of emission reduction policies are projected to peak between 2050 and 2060,ranging from 0.41%to 9.37%of total GDP in the baseline scenario,primarily due to increased energy prices and R&D investments.These costs are expected to decline rapidly after 2070.(2)China's carbon-neutral policies will mitigate global warming,with the economic benefits of mitigation projected to reach 5.65%to 17.24%of China's total GDP by 2100.(3)Lowcarbon scenarios SSP1 and SSP4 could significantly reduce initial economic costs and advance the onset of net economic gains to 2060.This integrated assessment confirms that China's carbon neutrality target offers substantial net economic benefits in the long term.To minimize initial economic costs,efforts should focus on enhancing consumption-side transitions,upgrading lowcarbon technologies,and adopting new energy sources.

关 键 词：Climate change China Carbon neutrality Economic effects POLICY 

分 类 号：F124.5[经济管理—世界经济] X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]