中国城市居民生活碳排放因素分解与减碳潜力分析  

Decomposition of carbon emission factors and carbon reduction potential of urban residents in China

作　　者：岳婷[1] 周静 龙如银 张莹开 王茜茹 陈红 YUE Ting;ZHOU Jing;LONG Ruyin;ZHANG Yingkai;WANG Qianru;CHEN Hong(School of Economics and Management,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221116,China;School of Business,Jiangnan University,Wuxi 214122,China)

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学经济管理学院,徐州221116 [2]江南大学商学院,无锡214122

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2024年第12期3777-3792,共16页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72074211);国家社会科学基金重大项目(23&ZD097,21&ZD166);国家社会科学基金重大人才专项(22VRC200)。

摘　　要：促进城市居民生活碳减排对于应对气候变化问题具有重要意义.本文基于中国288个地级及以上城市2009–2019年的面板数据,对城市居民生活碳排放量进行测算,结合人口和经济特征将城市聚类为四大类型进行分析,并对城市居民生活碳排放影响因素进行分解分析,进一步利用BP神经网络模型和情景分析法对各类别城市居民减碳潜力进行预测.结果表明:1)中国城市居民生活碳排放总量逐年递增,其中用电碳排放占比最高,供暖碳排放增长率最高;2)城市化水平、人均可支配收入、居民能源结构和人口总规模对全国城市居民生活碳排放的影响效应均为正,居民能源强度与居民消费倾向的影响效应为负,且对四类城市碳排放的影响具有一定差异性;3)四类城市居民生活领域均有较大减碳潜力,且存在较大差异.第二类城市的减碳潜力明显高于其他城市,第一类城市居民生活减碳潜力整体最低,第三、四类城市居民生活减碳潜力变化程度相似,整体呈现先增后减的趋势.各地可因地制宜制定与实施居民减碳相关措施.Promoting carbon emission reduction of urban residents is of great significance for mitigating climate problems.Based on the panel data of 288 cities above prefecture level in China from 2009 to 2019,this paper calculated the living carbon emissions of urban residents,and combined population and economic characteristics to cluster cities into four types for analysis,and analyzed the influencing factors of living carbon emissions of urban residents.And BP neural network and scenario analysis were used to predict the carbon reduction potential of various urbanresidents. The results show that: 1) The total carbon emission of urban residents in China isincreasing year by year, and the proportion of carbon emission from electricity is the highest,and the growth rate of carbon emission from heating is the highest. 2) Urbanization level, percapita disposable income, energy structure and total population size all have positive effects onthe carbon emissions of urban residents, while energy intensity and consumption tendency ofurban residents have negative effects, and the influencing factors of carbon emissions of variouscities have certain differences. 3) All kinds of cities have great carbon reduction potential inresidents’ life, and there are great differences. The carbon reduction potential of the second typeof cities is significantly higher than that of other cities. The first type of cities has the lowestcarbon reduction potential overall. The change degree of carbon reduction potential of the thirdand fourth types of cities is similar, showing a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. Alllocalities may formulate and implement carbon reduction measures for residents according tolocal conditions.

关 键 词：城市居民生活碳排放 聚类分析 影响因素 减碳潜力 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]