基于MaxEnt模型预测茶方胸小蠹在中国的潜在适生区  

Prediction of potential suitable of tea shot-hole borer Euwallacea fornicatus in China based on MaxEnt model

作　　者：郑晓毅 王欽召 田语卿 陈心韵 刘兴平[1] Zheng Xiaoyi;Wang Qinzhao;Tian Yuqing;Chen Xinyun;Liu Xingping(Provincial Key Laboratory of Conservation Biology,School of Forestry,Jiangxi Agricultural University,Nanchang 330045,Jiangxi Province,China)

机构地区：[1]江西农业大学林学院,保护生物学江西省重点实验室,南昌330045

出　　处：《植物保护学报》2024年第6期1518-1530,共13页Journal of Plant Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(31760106);江西省林业局科技创新专项(201910)。

摘　　要：为揭示气候变化对茶方胸小蠹Euwallacea fornicatus分布格局的影响,收集其现有的物种分布点和气候数据,通过整理和筛选获得有效分布点数据和重要生物气候变量,对MaxEnt模型的特征组合和调控倍频2个参数进行优化,利用优化后的模型预测当前气候条件下和未来4种气候情景下茶方胸小蠹在中国的潜在适生区,分析其适生区格局变化和质心变化。结果显示:共筛选获得111个有效分布点数据和8个重要生物气候变量;当特征组合为LQHPT,调控倍频为2.0时,MaxEnt模型最优;MaxEnt模型的受试者工作特征曲线下面积值为0.944,表明模型预测结果可靠;最冷季平均气温、最湿季降水量、最冷季降水量、等温性、气温年较差和平均气温日较差是影响茶方胸小蠹潜在分布的关键生物气候变量,而最冷季平均气温是影响茶方胸小蠹潜在分布的最关键生物气候变量;在当前气候条件下,茶方胸小蠹在中国的潜在适生区总面积为303.97×10^(4) km^(2),约占中国陆地面积的31.66%;在未来气候情景下,茶方胸小蠹在中国的潜在适生区总体呈扩张趋势,其潜在适生区均向高纬度和高海拔地区扩张,其适生区质心由贵州省迁往重庆市和四川省。To investigate the impact of climate change on the distribution pattern of tea shot-hole borer Euwallacea fornicatus,the current geographical distribution and climatic variables of this species were collected.Valid distribution points and bioclimatic variables were screened and acquired,and the feature combination and regularization multiplier of the MaxEnt model were optimized.The optimized MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential suitable area of E.fornicatus in China under present climate and four future climate scenarios.The changes in its distribution pattern and centroid migration were also analyzed.The results showed that a total of 111 valid distribution points and eight bioclimatic variables were obtained through screening.The MaxEnt model performed best with a feature combination of LQHPT and a regularization multiplier of 2.0.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)value of the MaxEnt model was 0.944,indicating the reliability of the prediction.Key bioclimatic variables influencing the potential suitable area of E.fornicates included the mean temperature of the coldest quarter,precipitation of the wettest quarter,precipitation of the coldest quarter,isothermality,annual temperature range and mean diurnal temperature range,with the mean temperature of the coldest quarter being the most critical.Under present climate conditions,the potential suitable area for E.fornicatus in China was approximately 303.97×10^(4) km^(2),covering 31.66%of the total land area.Under future climate scenarios,the potential suitable area showed an overall expansion trend,tending to migrate towards higher latitudes and altitudes.The centroid of the suitable area shifted from Guizhou Province to Chongqing City and Sichuan Province.

关 键 词：茶方胸小蠹 MaxEnt模型 潜在适生区 预测 气候变量 

分 类 号：G63[文化科学—教育学]