外部需求冲击对中国技能溢价的影响  

The Impact of External Demand Shocks on Skill Premium in China

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作  者:张天顶[1] 胡锦辉 ZHANG Tianding;HU Jinhui

机构地区:[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院

出  处:《世界经济研究》2025年第1期102-117,M0004,共17页World Economy Studies

基  金:国家社会科学基金重大项目“新发展阶段伟大实践与发展经济学理论创新研究”(批准号:21&ZD071);武汉大学研究生导师育人方式创新项目“全球经济动态、治理与政策研讨班”(项目编号:2023YJ10501)。

摘  要:中国式现代化是全体人民共同富裕的现代化,深入探讨中国技能溢价的影响因素对于优化收入分配结构和推动共同富裕具有重要意义。文章研究了外部需求冲击对不同技能劳动力之间技能溢价的影响效应。在理论分析和假说构建的基础上,文章利用企业数据进行了实证研究。研究结果显示,外部需求增加会导致技能溢价现象的出现。影响机制分析表明,外部需求增加通过集聚效应、质量效应以及技能议价效应三种机制扩大了不同技能劳动力之间的收入差距。异质性分析显示,外部需求增加对一般贸易企业、民营企业以及东部和中部企业技能溢价的影响尤为突出。在考虑国内价值链和全球价值链分工模式后发现,参与国内价值链分工有助于在一定程度上缓解外部需求增加带来的技能溢价,而参与全球价值链分工则可能进一步加剧技能溢价带来的收入不平等问题。文章的政策含义为:随着中国面临的外部需求不确定性日益加剧,政府需要平衡外部需求变化与收入分配之间的关系;在外需减弱时,政府可以加大对企业的服务支持,鼓励企业进行转型升级并提升人力资本;在外需增加时,政府应加强对企业创新和技术发展的支持,通过技能培训提升整体劳动力的技术水平和竞争力,以缩小不同劳动力之间的收入差距。Chinese modernization aims at achieving common prosperity for all,which is necessary to have a deep understanding of the factors influencing skill premium.This paper investigates the impact of external demand shocks on skill premium between different skill labor forces.Based on theoretical analysis and hypothesis construction,empirical research using enterprise and individual survey data is conducted to explore these impacts.The results show that an increase in external demand leads to the emergence of the skill premium phenomenon.Mechanism analysis indicates that the increase in external demand widens the income gap between different skill labor forces through agglomeration,quality,and skill bargaining effects.Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the impact of increased external demand on skill premium phenomena is prominent for general trade enterprises,private enterprises,and enterprises in eastern and central China.Considering the domestic and global value chain division of labor,we find that participating in the domestic value chain can help alleviate the skill premium brought by increased external demand,while participating in the global value chains may further exacerbate income inequality caused by skill premium.The policy implications of this study indicate that as China faces increasing uncertainty in external demand,the government needs to balance the relationship between external demand changes and income distribution.When facing a decrease in external demand,the government can increase support for enterprise services and encourage enterprises to combine transformation and upgrading with the promotion of human capital.When external demand increases,the government should focus on strengthening support for enterprise innovation and technological development,and enhance overall labor force competitiveness through skill training to narrow the income gap between different labor forces.

关 键 词:外部需求冲击 技能溢价 影响机制 

分 类 号:C975[经济管理—劳动经济] F249.2

 

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