地缘政治风险变动与国际证券资本流动网络重构  

Geopolitical Risks and International Portfolio Capital Flows Network

作　　者：陈奉先[1] 王媛 CHEN Fengxian;WANG Yuan

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学金融学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2025年第1期118-133,M0004,共17页World Economy Studies

基　　金：北京市社会科学基金一般项目;北京市教育委员会科研计划重点项目“国际资本流动‘突然停止’冲击的微观影响与治理对策”(项目编号:22GJB010,SZ202310038016);首都经济贸易大学北京市属高校基本科研业务费专项资金(项目编号:QNTD202206);首都经济贸易大学博士研究生学术新人计划项目“地缘政治风险与国际资本流动”(项目编号:2025XSXR16);北京市国际金融学会课题项目“高水平对外开放与新质生产力”(项目编号:BIFS241001)。

摘　　要：基于2007—2020年44个经济体的数据,文章在构建国际证券资本流动网络的基础上,研究地缘政治风险对证券资本流动的“溢出效应”及作用渠道。文章发现:地缘政治风险上升对国际证券资本流动造成负面影响,当地缘政治风险上升1个标准差时,东道国在证券资本流动网络中的加权入度中心度相对其均值下降1.75%;相较于股权资本流动网络,地缘政治风险对债权资本流动网络的影响更大;在地缘政治风险影响经济体证券资本流动的过程中,主权信用评级和外汇风险暴露发挥重要的渠道作用。异质性分析表明,在新兴经济体以及资本开放度、制度质量、金融发展水平较低的经济体中,地缘政治风险对证券资本流动的负面影响更大。文章认为,在全球金融一体化进程中,各经济体需密切关注地缘政治风险的变动和升级,加强与周边合作伙伴的联系,以有效防范地缘政治风险的溢出作用。Using data of 44 economies from 2007 and 2020,this paper constructs an international portfolio capital flow network and investigates the spillover effects of geopolitical risks on portfolio capital flows and their channels of action.The study finds that:first,the rise in geopolitical risks has a negative impact on international portfolio capital flows.An increase in geopolitical risks by one standard deviation results2.06% decrease in the weighted indegree centrality of the host country in the portfolio capital flow network,relative to its mean value.At the same time,compared to the equity capital flow network,geopolitical risks have a greater impact on the debt capital flow network.Second,in the process of geopolitical risks affecting the portfolio capital flows of economies,sovereign credit ratings and foreign exchange risk exposure are significant channels.Thirdly,heterogeneous analysis indicates that in emerging economies,particularly those with lower capital openness,institutional quality,and financial development levels,the negative impact of geopolitical risks on portfolio capital flows is more pronounced.Therefore,in the context of global financial integration,all economies must closely monitor the changes and escalation of geopolitical risks,strengthen ties with neighboring partners,and effectively mitigate the spillover effects of geopolitical risks.

关 键 词：地缘政治风险 证券资本流动网络 主权信用评级 外汇风险暴露 

分 类 号：F83[经济管理—金融学]