老年口腔种植Ⅰ期病人术后种植体失败的风险因素分析及预测模型构建  

Analysis of risk factors and construction of a prediction model for postoperative implant failure in elderly patients with stageⅠoral implants

作　　者：莫芸赢 廖莹[1] 苏振群 李彦霏 MO Yunying;LIAO Ying;SU Zhenqun;LI Yanfei(Affiliated Stomatological Hospital of Guangxi Medical University,Guangxi 530000 China)

机构地区：[1]广西医科大学附属口腔医院,530000

出　　处：《全科护理》2025年第3期419-422,共4页Chinese General Practice Nursing

基　　金：广西壮族自治区卫生健康委员会自筹经费科研课题,编号:Z20210153。

摘　　要：目的:探讨老年口腔种植Ⅰ期病人术后种植体失败的风险因素并构建风险预测模型进行验证。方法:选取2022年7月—2023年10月在某三级甲等医院进行治疗的275例老年口腔种植Ⅰ期病人为研究对象,根据病人种植情况,将病人分为失败组26例和成功组249例,采用多因素Logistic回归分析影响老年口腔种植Ⅰ期病人术后种植体失败的风险因素,构建预测模型,采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线分析其预测价值。结果:老年口腔种植Ⅰ期病人术后发生种植体失败的发生率为9.45%。牙周病、种植牙愈合期再次损伤、未定期清洁牙是影响老年口腔种植Ⅰ期病人术后发生种植体失败的独立危险因素。多因素Logistic回归分析构建预测模型,ROC曲线显示,预测模型预测老年口腔种植Ⅰ期术后种植体失败的曲线下面积(AUC)为0.989,其预测的灵敏度为92.3%,特异度为98.4%。结论:老年口腔种植Ⅰ期病人术后发生种植体失败的风险因素与牙周病、种植牙愈合期再次损伤、未定期清洁牙有关,构建的预测模型有较好的临床价值。临床医护人员针对上述病人种植失败的风险因素,采取针对性的预防措施。Objective:To explore the risk factors for postoperative implant failure in elderly patients with stage Ⅰ oral implants and construct a risk prediction model for verification.Methods:A total of 275 elderly patients with stage Ⅰ oral implants who were treated in a third grade A hospital from July 2022 to October 2023 were selected as the subjects.According to the implant status of the patients,the patients were divided into a failure group(26 cases)and a success group(249 cases).Multivariate Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors affecting postoperative implant failure in elderly patients with stage Ⅰ oral implants,and a prediction model was constructed.The ROC curve was used to analyze its predictive value.Results:The incidence of postoperative implant failure in elderly patients with stage Ⅰ oral implantation was 9.45%.Periodontal disease,reinjury of implant during healing and failure to clean teeth regularly were independent risk factors for implant failure in elderly patients with stage Ⅰ oral implantation.Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to construct a prediction model,and ROC curve showed that the AUC of the prediction model predicting implant failure in elderly patients after stage I oral implantation was 0.989,with a sensitivity of 92.3%and a specificity of 98.4%.Conclusion:The risk factors of postoperative implant failure in elderly patients with stage Ⅰ oral implantation were related to periodontal disease,reinjury of implant during healing,and failure to clean teeth regularly.The prediction model established has good clinical value.According to the above risk factors of implantation failure,clinical medical staff should take targeted preventive measures.

关 键 词：老年 口腔种植Ⅰ期病人 种植体失败 风险因素 预测模型 

分 类 号：R78[医药卫生—口腔医学]