基于改进TANK模型的降雨型滑坡地下水位预测  

Groundwater level prediction in rainfall-induced landslides based on improved TANK model

作　　者：郑榆枫 黄栋[1] 樊晓一 石莉莉 张宇 郭德庆 ZHENG Yufeng;HUANG Dong;FAN Xiaoyi;SHI Lili;ZHANG Yu;GUO Deqing(Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,CAS,Chengdu 610041,China;School of Civil Engineering and Surveying,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,China;Chengdu Institute of Geo-environment Monitoring,Chengdu 610042 China;Observation and Research Station of Chengdu Geological Hazards,MNR,Chengdu 610042 China;Sichuan Geological Environment Survey and Research Center(Sichuan Huadi Construction Engineering Co.,Ltd.,),Chengdu 610081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,四川成都610041 [2]西南石油大学土木工程与测绘学院,四川成都610500 [3]成都市地质环境监测站,四川成都610042 [4]自然资源部成都地质灾害野外科学观测研究站,四川成都610042 [5]四川省地质环境调查研究中心(四川省华地建设工程有限责任公司),四川成都610081

出　　处：《人民长江》2025年第1期132-139,共8页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42171087);国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFB2301405)。

摘　　要：地下水位变化是导致崩塌、滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害发生的重要因素之一。为了更准确地预测降雨型滑坡地下水位的演化情况,考虑降雨强度、地形和地质条件等因素对地下水位变化的影响,提出一种改进的TANK模型。该模型首先采用梯形结构替代传统的矩形结构,将水位截面由线性变化变为非线性变化;其次重构模型降雨汇集方式以提高水位识别敏感度;最后根据监测数据的有效特征计算并反馈精确度。以塔子坪滑坡监测数据为例进行验证,结果表明所提方法具有良好的可靠性和稳定性。对比传统TANK模型和改进TANK模型的模拟结果与实际监测数据可知,改进TANK模型表现更佳,有训练时间短、对中小雨强-地下水位变化识别敏感、变化趋势更接近监测设备传回结果的特点;在短期、中期、长期预测中,预测精度(NSE)提高了6.8%~20.3%,且中期预测精度(NSE)最高,说明所提模型可以有效地模拟地下水位随降雨的变化趋势。研究成果可为预测和评估降雨型滑坡的地下水状态变化提供依据。Groundwater level variations are one of the critical triggering factors for geological disasters such as collapses,landslides,and debris flows.To more accurately predict the evolution of groundwater levels in rainfall-induced landslides,an improved TANK model was proposed based on the influence of rainfall intensity,topography,and geological conditions on groundwater fluctuations.The proposed model introduced three key improvements:first,the traditional rectangular structure was replaced with a trapezoidal structure,enabling a nonlinear instead of linear variation in the water level cross-section;second,the rainfall convergence mechanism was restructured to enhance the sensitivity of water level detection;and third,the model incorporated effective features from monitoring data to calculate and feedback accuracy.Validation using monitoring data from the Taziping landslide demonstrated that the proposed method exhibited high reliability and stability.Compared to the traditional TANK model,the improved TANK model performed better in simulating groundwater level dynamics,with advantages such as shorter training times,higher sensitivity to small and medium-intensity rainfall-induced groundwater changes,and closer alignment with trends observed in monitoring data.In short-,medium-,and long-term predictions,the prediction accuracy(NSE)of the improved model increased by 6.8%to 20.3%,with the highest accuracy observed in medium-term predictions.These findings suggested that the proposed model can effectively simulate the variation trends of groundwater levels under rainfall conditions.The research outcomes can provide a basis for predicting and assessing groundwater status changes in rainfall-induced landslides.

关 键 词：地下水位预测 TANK模型 塔子坪滑坡 降雨型滑坡 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]