权力巅峰下的国际秩序变革:守成国修正主义的地位风险平衡理论  

International Order Transformation at the Pinnacle of Power:A Balance of Status-Risk Theory Explaining Established Powers' Revisionist Behaviour

作　　者：王召东 杜洞光 Wang Zhaodong;Du Dongguang

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学国际关系学院

出　　处：《当代亚太》2024年第6期32-57,165,166,共28页Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目《印度政府关于中印边界争端的历史叙事与我国的应对研究》(项目号:22BGJ080)的资助。

摘　　要：守成国不仅是现有国际秩序的维护者,也可能成为修正主义者。当面对崛起国的压力时,何种因素和机制引发守成国主动修正既有地区与国际秩序?文章提出的地位风险平衡理论认为,守成国出于地位被撼动或丧失的风险会主动地对既有秩序进行变革,基于平衡地位排斥与风险取向的双重考量,综合采取积极反制、优势巩固、主动进攻、蓄势对抗四种策略对地区与国际秩序进行不同方式和程度的修正,进而引发地区与国际秩序的调整或变迁,由此构建了守成国修正主义行为的因果解释机制。通过案例分析表明,守成国的修正主义行为是单一策略运用或多种策略混合联动使用的结果。文章不仅为理解国际秩序的调整与变迁提供了新的理论视角,也为崛起国如何应对守成国的修正主义行为提供了借鉴。This study examines the factors and mechanisms that drive established powers to undertake systemic adjustments of regional and international orders when confronted with pressure from rising powers.The paper introduces "balance of status-risk theory",arguing that established powers pursue order modification in response to perceived risks of status erosion or displacement.Based on dual considerations of status exclusion and risk orientation,established powers employ four integrated strategies including active counterbalancing,advantage consolidation,proactive offensive measures,and strategic confrontation preparation to achieve modification in certain degrees through various approaches,catalyzing adjustments and transformations in regional and international orders.Through analysis of these dynamics,this study constructs a causal explanatory mechanism for the revisionist behavior by established powers.Case studies demonstrate that the revisionist behaviour of established powers results from either the application of single strategies or the dynamic interplay of multiple strategies.

关 键 词：守成国 崛起国 修正主义 国际秩序 地位风险平衡理论 

分 类 号：F27[经济管理—企业管理]