基于VSG-ELM模型的疲劳裂纹扩展剩余寿命预测  

Remaining useful life prediction for fatigue crack growth based on VSG-ELM model

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作  者:郑卫东 熊伟 李晓燕 白培强 林思宇 崔雄华[2] 吕延军[3] 石瑞 ZHENG Weidong;XIONG Wei;LI Xiaoyan;BAI Peiqiang;LIN Siyu;CUI Xionghua;LYU Yanjun;SHI Rui(Yuhuan Power Plant,Huadian Energy Co.,Ltd.,Taizhou 317604,China;Xi’an Thermal Power Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Xi’an 710054,China;School of Mechanical and Precision Instrument Engineering,Xi’an University of Technology,Xi’an 710048,China)

机构地区:[1]华电能源股份有限公司玉环电厂,浙江台州317604 [2]西安热工研究院有限公司,陕西西安710054 [3]西安理工大学机械与精密仪器工程学院,陕西西安710048

出  处:《热力发电》2025年第2期145-153,共9页Thermal Power Generation

摘  要:火电机组超期服役成为趋势,但汽轮机转子钢疲劳裂纹却严重影响机组运行安全。转子钢疲劳裂纹扩展试验数据缺失,随机模型建模与求解计算量大使得疲劳裂纹剩余寿命(RUL)预测受限。在对已有疲劳裂纹扩展试验及随机模型分析基础上,提出了基于整体趋势扩散(MTD)技术的高斯隶属度信息扩散(GMIE)样本域的方法生成虚拟样本,运用期望分位数回归(ER)与极限学习机(ELM)神经网络模型相结合预测疲劳裂纹扩展的RUL。对特定循环周次下疲劳裂纹扩展的RUL进行预测,通过与已有数值分析方法的RUL概率密度函数(PDF)曲线和疲劳裂纹扩展曲线对比,得出平均绝对百分比误差(δMAPE)为2.78%,验证了所提方法的有效性,为汽轮机转子系统安全运行提供了有力支持。Overdue service of thermal power units has become a trend,but fatigue crack of turbine rotor steel seriously affects the operation safety of steam turbine units.Due to the lack of the fatigue crack growth(FCG)test data of rotor steel,and large computation cost for stochastic model modeling and solution,the estimation of fatigue crack remaining useful life(RUL)is currently insufficient.On the basis of fatigue crack growth tests and analysis on its random models,a modified Gaussian membership information expanded(GMIE)sample domain method is proposed to generate virtual samples based on mega trend diffusion(MTD).Meanwhile,an extreme machine learning(ELM)neural network combined with the expective regression(ER)model is used to predict the RUL of fatigue crack propagation.The RUL of fatigue crack propagation under a specific cycle is calculated.By comparing the results with the RUL probability density function(PDF)curve and fatigue crack propagation curve of the existing numerical analysis methods,it shows that mean absolute percentage error(dMAPE)is 2.78%,which verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method and provides robust support for safe operation of the turbine rotor systems.

关 键 词:整体趋势扩散 疲劳裂纹扩展 VSG-ELM 剩余寿命预测 

分 类 号:TM621[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]

 

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