CSEP 2.0阶段工作研究进展及中国测试区设计与模型试验  

Phase 2.0 of CSEP Work:Progress,Design and Model Forecasting Experiment in the China Test Region

作　　者：张盛峰 张永仙[1] 李莎 ZHANG Shengfeng;ZHANG Yongxian;LI Sha(Institute of Earthquake Forecasting,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100036,China;GNS Science,Avalon 5011,Lower Hutt 5040,New Zealand;Earthquake Agency of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,Nanning 530022,Guangxi,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地震预测研究所,北京100036 [2]新西兰地质与核科学研究所,新西兰下哈特5040 [3]广西壮族自治区地震局,广西南宁530022

出　　处：《地震研究》2025年第2期188-198,共11页Journal of Seismological Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(42004038);中国地震局地震预测研究所基本科研业务专项(CEAIEF2022030206);地震预测开放基金(XH24005D);中国地震局和留学基金委英才计划CSC项目(202204190019)。

摘　　要：由美国南加州地震中心和美国地质调查局共同支持的RELM工作组以及由此进一步发展而来的“地震可预测性国际合作研究”(CSEP)计划开始之后,研究人员围绕地震预测模型和统计检验方法内容的不同测试中心对地震可预测性问题开展了广泛研究。在前期针对CSEP 1.0阶段介绍的基础上,介绍CSEP 2.0阶段的相关内容,包含该阶段发起的背景、发展的总体设计、主要进展以及不同测试区的重点关注内容。针对我国当前的参与情况,初步设计了参与该阶段工作的中国CSEP 2.0测试区范围以及使用图像信息学(PI)算法开展的预测试验。Since the establishment of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models(RELM)working group,jointly initiated by the Southern California Earthquake Center(SCEC)and the U.S.Geological Survey(USGS)in 2000,and the subsequent development of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability(CSEP)project,various earthquake forecast models and statistical evaluation methods for assessing their performance have been widely applied.Based on the introduction of Phase 1.O of CSEP work,this paper primarily introduces the aspects of CSEP 2.O,including its background,overall development design,several key conference discussions,and work plans for different test centers.Additionally,regarding the current participation of China,this paper preliminarily designs the scope of the China CSEP 2.O test region and conducts a pilot experiment using the Pattern Informatics(PI)algorithm.It is hoped that this work can provide a reference for other models to participate in China CSEP 2.O work and for the next step of our international co-operation research to be carried out in an orderly manner.

关 键 词：CSEP 2.0 中国测试区 PI算法 效能评估 

分 类 号：P315.72[天文地球—地震学]