基于改进ARMAX模型的新型电力系统区域惯量评估方法  

Method for Evaluating Regional Inertia of New Power Systems Based on Improved ARMAX Model

作　　者：冯朔 武家辉[1] Feng Shuo;Wu Jiahui(School of Electrical Engineering,Xinjiang University,Urumqi Xinjiang 830017,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学电气工程学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830017

出　　处：《电气自动化》2025年第1期51-53,57,共4页Electrical Automation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52167016);新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发专项资助项目(2022B01020-3)。

摘　　要：随着高比例可再生能源并网,电力系统频率的动态行为愈加复杂,准确评估系统惯量是保障电网安全稳定运行的关键。首先,通过考虑频率响应的谱聚类方法对新型电力系统进行区域划分,可以实现系统的有效分区;然后,提出改进ARMAX模型的新型电力系统区域惯量评估方法,方法采用含有遗忘因子的递推最小二乘算法,将惯量评估问题转化为对改进ARMAX模型的参数辨识问题。算例分析,在小扰动场景下对体现新型电力系统的改进10机39节点系统进行区域惯量评估误差为3.38%,对比系统不分区误差7.61%,本文方法评估惯量精确性有所提高。With the high proportion of renewable energy connected to the grid and the increasingly complex dynamic behavior of power system frequency,accurately assessing system inertia has become the key to ensuring the safe and stable operation of the power grid.Firstly,the spectral clustering method considering frequency response was used to partition the new power system into regions,achieving effective partitioning of the system;then,a method for evaluating the regional inertia of new power systems with improved ARMAX models was proposed,which used a recursive least squares algorithm with a forgetting factor to transform the inertia evaluation problem into a parameter identification problem for the improved ARMAX model.According to the analysis of the calculation examples,the regional inertia evaluation error of the improved 10 machines-39 nodes system that embodies the new power system in small disturbance scenarios is 3.38%,while the non-partitioned error of the compared system is 7.61%.The results indicate that the accuracy of the proposed method in evaluating inertia has been improved.

关 键 词：新型电力系统惯量 频率响应 频率分区 谱聚类 改进ARMAX模型 

分 类 号：TM744[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]