库尔勒香梨生长气象条件及主要气象灾害影响分析  

Analysis of Growth Meteorological Conditions and Main Meteorological Disasters of Korla Fragrant Pear

作　　者：胡启瑞 吉春容 高健 HU Qirui;JI Chunrong;GAO Jian(Xinjiang Agro-meteorological Observatory/Xinjiang Agriculture Network Information Center,Urumqi 830002;Institute of Modern Forestry,Xinjiang Academy of Forestry,Urumqi 830002)

机构地区：[1]新疆维吾尔自治区农业气象台/新疆兴农网信息中心,乌鲁木齐830002 [2]新疆林业科学院现代林业研究所,乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2025年第3期91-97,共7页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发计划项目“基于林果资源大数据的气象灾害智能监测研究与示范”(2023B02004)。

摘　　要：本文旨在揭示库尔勒香梨生长期间农业气候资源变化特征及主要气象灾害,为当地香梨产业适应气候变化提供科学依据。利用库尔勒市气象站1981—2021年逐日气象资料、物候期资料,1985—2014年历史灾情资料,采用Mann-Kendall突变检测、气候倾向率法,分析库尔勒香梨生长期间的气候变化特征及气象灾害。结果表明:1981—2021年,库尔勒香梨生长期间气温、≥10℃积温、日照时数呈增加趋势,降水量变化趋势不明显但波动较大。库尔勒香梨生长期间气温日较差为12.5~13.5℃,大风日数有明显减少的趋势。40 a来,库尔勒香梨萌芽及开花期提前,全生育期延长。气候变化背景下,丰富的热量和光照资源有利于库尔勒香梨产量和优良品质的形成,大风、冰雹是库尔勒香梨生长期间的主要气象灾害。研究结果为当地科学利用气候资源和防灾减灾提供依据。The aims are to reveal the characteristics of agro-meteorological climate resource and main meteorological disasters during the growth of Korla Fragrant Pear,and to provide scientific advice to adapt to climate change.The characteristics of climate change during the growth period of Korla Fragrant Pear and meteorological disasters were analyzed by Mann-Kendall mutation detection,climatic tendency rate and correlation test,based on the observation data of Korla Meteorological Stations from 1981 to 2021.The results showed that the average temperature,≥10℃accumulated temperature and sunshine hours showed significantly increasing trend during the growing period of Korla Fragrant Pear.Precipitation showed a weak decreasing tendency.The number of gale days showed an obvious decreasing tendency,but it fluctuated greatly.Over the past 40 years,the germination and flowering period of Korla Fragrant Pear shifted to an earlier date,the fruit maturity and total growth period was prolonged.Abundant solar heat resource was conducive to the formation of yield and good quality of Korla Fragrant Pear,under climate change.Gale and hail were the main meteorological disasters during the growth of Korla Fragrant Pear.The research results provide a basis for the scientific use of climate resources and disaster prevention and mitigation.

关 键 词：生长气象条件 气象灾害 物候期 库尔勒香梨 气候变化 气候资源 Mann-Kendall突变检测 气候倾向率法 

分 类 号：S166[农业科学—农业气象学]