Global esophageal cancer epidemiology in 2022 and predictions for 2050:A comprehensive analysis and projections based on GLOBOCAN data  

作　　者：Ling Qi Mengfei Sun Weixin Liu Xuefeng Zhang Yongjun Yu Ziqiang Tian Zhiyu Ni Rongshou Zheng Yong Li 

机构地区：[1]Department of Oncology,National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital,Peking Union Medical College,Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences,Beijing 100021,China [2]College of Pharmacy,Inner Mongolia Medical University,Hohhot,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region 010110,China [3]Department of Thoracic Surgery,National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital,Peking Union Medical College,Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences,Beijing 100021,China [4]Department of Thoracic Surgery,Inner Mongolia Medical University,Hohhot,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region 010110,China [5]Department of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery,The Second Hospital of Chifeng,Chifeng,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region 024099,China [6]Department of Thoracic Surgery,Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University,Shijiazhuang,Hebei 110000,China [7]Central Laboratory,Hebei Collaborative Innovation Center of Tumor Microecological Metabolism Regulation,Affiliated Hospital of Hebei University,Baoding,Hebei 071000,China [8]Medical College,Hebei University of Engineering,Handan,Hebei 056038,China [9]Affiliated Hospital of Hebei Engineering University,Handan,Hebei 056002,China [10]National Central Cancer Registry,National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital,Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College,Beijing 100021,China

出　　处：《Chinese Medical Journal》2024年第24期3108-3116,共9页中华医学杂志(英文版)

基　　金：funded by the Capital Health Research and Development Special Project(No.2022-2Z-40212);Beijing Natural Science Foundation of China(No.7222153);Medical and Health Science and Technology Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences(No.2021-I2M-C&T-B-047);Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Basic Research Project of Beijing Science and Technology Bureau(No.22JCZXJC0040);China Cancer Foundation Beijing Hope Marathon Special Fund(No.LC2021A06);National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.82373072).

摘　　要：Background:The burden of esophageal cancer varies across different regions of the world.The aim of this study is to analyze the current burden of esophageal cancer in 185 countries in 2022 and to project the trends up to the year 2050.Methods:We extracted data on primary esophageal cancer cases and deaths from the GLOBOCAN 2022 database,which includes data from 185 countries.Age-standardized incidence rates(ASIR)and mortality rates(ASMR)per 100,000 person-years were calculated by stratifying by Human Development Index(HDI)levels and regions.Considering changes in population size and age structure,we assumed that the risks of incidence and mortality remain constant at the levels of 2022 to forecast the number of new cases and deaths from esophageal cancer globally by 2050.Results:In 2022,an estimated 511,054 people were diagnosed with esophageal cancer globally,and 445,391 died from the disease.The global ASIR and ASMR for esophageal cancer were 5.00 and 4.30 per 100,000,respectively.The highest rates were observed in East Africa(7.60 for incidence,7.20 for mortality per 100,000),East Asia(7.60 for incidence,5.90 for mortality per 100,000),Southern Africa(6.30 for incidence,5.90 for mortality per 100,000),and South Central Asia(5.80 for incidence,5.50 for mortality per 100,000).Among the 185 countries worldwide,esophageal cancer was among the top five causes of cancer incidence in 18 countries and among the top five causes of cancer mortality in 25 countries.In 2022,China had 224,012 new cases and 187,467 deaths from esophageal cancer,accounting for approximately 43.8%and 42.1%of the global total,respectively,which is higher than the proportion of China’s population to the global population(17.9%).ASIR was 8.30 per 100,000,and ASMR was 6.70 per 100,000.The highest burden of esophageal cancer was in high HDI countries,with new cases and deaths accounting for 51.3%and 50.0%of the global total,respectively.The ASIR and ASMR were highest in the high HDI group(6.10 and 5.10 per 100,000,respectively),also exceeding th

关 键 词：Esophageal cancer INCIDENCE MORTALITY PROJECTION Disease burden 

分 类 号：R73[医药卫生—肿瘤]