劳动供给冲击与青年劳动力工资水平——来自高职扩招的证据  

Labor Supply Shock and Wages of Young Workers:Evidence from the Expansion in China's Higher Vocational Education

作　　者：邢春冰 徐懿凡 Xing Chunbing;Yifan(School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development,Renmin University of China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院

出　　处：《管理世界》2025年第1期80-95,共16页Journal of Management World

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“劳动力要素市场化配置中的效率增进与协同推进共同富裕路径研究”(基金号:22&ZD056)的资助。

摘　　要：始于2019年的高职扩招使我国劳动力市场中的青年劳动力数量短期内显著下降。本文将此次高职扩招看作一次准自然实验,考察了其对劳动密集型企业青年员工工资水平的影响;利用扩招幅度的省际差异,同时以中年员工作为参照组的双重差分分析表明,扩招幅度较大(以扩招幅度的75%分位为划分标准)的省份中,青年员工的月工资水平显著上升了3.7%。异质性分析表明,相对于本地居民和高教育水平员工,外来务工人员和低教育水平员工的工资水平增加更多。本文发现,扩招带来的供给冲击减少了劳动密集型企业的总用工人数,提升了劳动力市场中青年劳动力的就业概率。本文的研究结果对于认识教育扩展对收入差距的影响以及劳动密集型企业的劳动需求弹性都有较好的借鉴意义。China has increased higher vocational education enrollment by more than one million since 2019,significantly reducing the supply of the young labor force.We consider this enrollment expansion as a supply shock and examine its impact on the wages of young workers who remain in the workforce.Using variations in the expansion across provinces and taking middle-aged employees as the reference group in a Difference-in-Differences specification,we show that the monthly wages of young workers in a high-expansion prov⁃ince(whose extent of expansion higher than the 75%percentile)increase by around 3.7%more than in a low-expansion province.Com⁃pared with workers with local hukou,the expansion has a greater impact on migrant workers.The wages of less educated workers rise more than those of higher education levels.We find that the enrollment expansion reduces the number of employees in labor-intensive en⁃terprises and increases the employment probability of the young labor force.This study has major implications for understanding the im⁃pact of college expansion on wage gaps and the labor demand elasticity in labor-intensive enterprises.

关 键 词：职业教育 高职扩招 供给冲击 劳动密集型企业 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济] G719.2[经济管理—国民经济]