Nomogram for predicting pathologic complete response following preoperative chemoradiotherapy in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma  

作　　者：Young Seob Shin Jeong Yun Jang Ye Jin Yoo Jesang Yu Kye Jin Song Yoon Young Jo Sung-Bae Kim Sook Ryun Park Ho June Song Yong-Hee Kim Hyeong Ryul Kim Jong Hoon Kim 

机构地区：[1]Department of Radiation Oncology,Asan Medical Center,University of Ulsan College of Medicine,Seoul,Korea [2]Department of Radiation Oncology,Kosin University Gospel Hospital,Kosin University College of Medicine,Busan,Korea [3]Department of Radiation Oncology,Yeungnam University Medical Centre,University of Yeungnam College of Medicine,Daegu,Korea [4]Department of Medical Oncology,Asan Medical Center,University of Ulsan College of Medicine,Seoul,Korea [5]Department of Gastroenterology,Asan Medical Center,University of Ulsan College of Medicine,Seoul,Korea [6]Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery,Asan Medical Center,University of Ulsan College of Medicine,Seoul,Korea

出　　处：《Gastroenterology Report》2024年第1期325-335,共11页胃肠病学报道(英文)

摘　　要：Background:In patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma(ESCC),accurately predicting a pathologic complete response(pCR)to preoperative chemoradiotherapy(PCRT)has the potential to enable an active surveillance strategy without esophagectomy.We aimed to establish a reliable multiparameter nomogram model that combines tumor characteristics,imaging modalities,and he-matologic markers to predict pCR in patients with ESCC who underwent PCRT and esophagectomy.Methods:We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 457 patients with ESCC who received PCRT followed by esophagectomy between January 2005 and October 2020.The nomogram model was developed using logistic regression analysis with a training co-hort and externally validated with a validation cohort.Results:In the training and validation cohorts,44.2%(126/285)and 48.3%(83/172)of patients,respectively,achieved pCR after PCRT.The 5-year rates of overall survival,progression-free survival,and freedom from local progression in the training cohort were 51.6%,48.5%,and 77.6%,respectively.The parameters included in the nomogram were histologic grade,clinical N stage,maximum stan-dardized uptake value on positron emission tomography,and post-PCRT biopsy.Hematologic markers were significantly associated with survival outcomes but not with pCR.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the nomogram was 0.717,0.704,and 0.707 for the training cohort,internal validation cohort,and external validation cohort,respectively.Conclusion:Our nomogram model based on four parameters obtained from standard clinical practice demonstrated good perfor-mance in both the training and validation cohorts and could be useful to aid clinical decision-making to determine whether surgery or active surveillance strategy should be pursued.

关 键 词：esophageal squamous cell carcinoma NOMOGRAMS treatment outcome CHEMORADIOTHERAPY ESOPHAGECTOMY 

分 类 号：R735.1[医药卫生—肿瘤]