“双碳”目标下京津冀水泥业碳排放效率及影响因素研究  

Research on carbon emission efficiency and influencing factors of cement industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei under the " double carbon" goal

作　　者：李健[1,2] 姜佳男 董经轩 LI Jian;JIANG Jianan;DONG Jingxuan(School of Management,Tianjin University of Technology,Tianjin 300384,China;Department of Management and Economics,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China)

机构地区：[1]天津理工大学管理学院,天津300384 [2]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072

出　　处：《天津理工大学学报》2025年第1期153-160,共8页Journal of Tianjin University of Technology

基　　金：天津市科技计划项目(21ZLZKZF00290);天津市研究生科研创新项目(2022BKY159)。

摘　　要：随着双碳战略的提出,研究水泥业碳排放效率及影响因素对于京津冀实现“双碳”目标具有重要现实意义。文中选用考虑碳排放作为非期望产出的超效率基于松弛值测算(super-subject-bench-marking, Super-SBM)模型测算京津冀2010—2022年水泥业碳排放效率。之后选取结构向量自回归(structural vector autoregression, SVAR)模型探讨京津冀水泥业碳排放的影响因素。结果表明:京津冀水泥业碳排放效率均值处于非有效状态,碳排放效率差异明显且呈不稳定的波动趋势。从短期看,提升非煤炭能源消耗比重,有助于京津冀水泥业碳减排。从中期看,经济增长总体上也有助于碳生产率的提升。从长期看,最有利于碳减排的是能源生产的持续优化和能源结构的不断调整。With the proposal of the dual-carbon strategy,it has great practical significance to study the carbon emission efficiency and influencing factors of the cement industry for the realization of the dual-carbon goal in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.In this paper,the super-subject-bench-marking(Super-SBM)model,which considers carbon emissions as unexpected output,is used to calculate the carbon emission efficiency of the cement industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei from 2010 to 2022.After that,structural vector autoregression(SVAR)model is selected to explore the influencing factors of carbon emissions of the cement industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.The results show that the average carbon emission efficiency of the cement industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is in an inefficient state,and the carbon emission efficiency has obvious differences and shows an unstable fluctuation trend;In the short term,increasing the proportion of non-coal energy consumption will help the cement industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei to reduce carbon emissions.In the medium term,economic growth will also contribute to the improvement of carbon productivity.In the long run,the most conducive to carbon emission reduction is the continuous optimization of energy production and the continuous adjustment of energy structure.

关 键 词：京津冀 结构向量自回归 水泥业 碳排放效率 超效率基于松驰值测算 

分 类 号：X701[环境科学与工程—环境工程]