供应链风险感知与企业投资效率  

Supply Chain Risk Perception and Enterprise Investment Effi ciency

作　　者：罗丹 李婉丽[1] 徐香 殷俊明 LUO Dan;LI Wan-li;XU Xiang;YIN Jun-ming

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学管理学院 [2]南京信息工程大学商学院 [3]南京信息工程大学商学院/会计与审计研究院

出　　处：《科学决策》2025年第1期82-105,共24页Scientific Decision Making

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(21BGL008);国家社会科学基金项目(21AGL009)。

摘　　要：在全球供应链复杂性和不确定性持续上升的背景下,研究管理层对供应链风险的感知及其对企业投资效率的影响具有重要意义。文章以2010-2021年A股上市公司为研究样本,基于MD&A文本并采用联词法刻画出管理层供应链风险感知指标,探讨其对投资效率的影响。实证结果表明,管理层对供应链风险的感知显著提高企业投资效率。异质性分析发现制造端风险和需求端风险显著提高企业投资效率,而供应端风险对企业投资效率的影响并不显著;此外,在管理层能力更高、具备生产背景的董事会以及供应链集中度较低时,企业感知的供应链风险对投资效率的正向作用更加显著。最后,机制检验发现,供应链风险感知主要通过减少专用投资等过度投资来提高投资效率,但无法改善牛鞭效应,反而会通过积累存货提供风险缓冲从而强化牛鞭效应。该文为揭示企业提升资源配置效率的关键路径,优化企业风险管理和政策制定提供了重要参考。With the rising complexity and uncertainty of global supply chains,investigating management’s perception of supply chain risk and its impact on corporate investment efficiency holds significant theoretical and practical value.Using A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2021 as the research samples,this study constructs an index of supply chain risk perception based on MD&A text by applying the conjunction method.It then examines the influence of this perception on corporate investment efficiency.Empiricalfindings demonstrate that management’s perception of supply chain risk significantly enhances investment efficiency.Heterogeneity analysis reveals that risks originating from the manufacturing side and demand side significantly improve investment efficiency,whereas supply-side risks exhibit no notable effect.Additionally,the positive relationship between supply chain risk perception and investment efficiency is more pronounced infirms characterized by higher managerial competence,boards of directors with production experience,and lower supply chain concentration.Mechanism analysis further indicates that supply chain risk perception primarily improves investment efficiency by curbing overinvestment,particularly in specialized investments.However,it does not mitigate the bullwhip effect;rather,it intensifies the effect by fostering inventory accumulation as a buffer against risks.This study contributes to the literature by providing key insights into the mechanisms through which enterprises can enhance resource allocation efficiency and by offering important implications for optimizing risk management strategies and policy-making.

关 键 词：供应链风险 风险感知 投资效率 专用资产 

分 类 号：F270[经济管理—企业管理] F275[经济管理—国民经济]