孵化器绩效的动态演化与路径依赖  

Dynamic Evolution and Path Dependence of Incubator Performance

作　　者：柯雨盛 张沁 KE Yu-sheng;ZHANG Qin

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院技术创新与战略管理研究中心 [2]中安联合投资集团有限公司博士后科研工作站

出　　处：《科学决策》2025年第1期140-157,共18页Scientific Decision Making

摘　　要：科技企业孵化器作为促进创新创业和产业升级的重要载体,其绩效表现和影响机制一直是学术界与政策决策者关注的焦点。该研究基于中国省际面板数据,采用动态面板模型(GMM)方法,考察了上一期孵化器绩效对当前绩效的影响,并分析了融资额与高新技术企业集聚的调节作用。研究发现,孵化器绩效存在显著的正向路径依赖,且融资资源和高新技术企业集聚能够强化这一效应。该研究丰富了孵化器绩效评价的动态分析视角,为政府与孵化器管理者在资源配置与政策设计方面提供实证依据和决策参考。Technology incubators serve as crucial platforms for promoting innovation,entrepreneurship,and industrial upgrading.Their performance and underlying mechanisms have long been focal points of interest for both academia and policymakers.This study utilizes interprovincial panel data from China and employs a dynamic panel model(GMM)approach to examine the impact of previous periods’incubator performance on current performance.Additionally,it analyzes the moderating eff ects of fi nancing amounts and the agglomeration of high-tech enterprises.The fi ndings reveal a signifi cant positive path dependence in incubator performance,which is further strengthened by fi nancing resources and the clustering of high-tech enterprises.This research enriches the dynamic analytical perspective on incubator performance evaluation and provides empirical evidence and decision-making references for governments and incubator managers in resource allocation and policy design.

关 键 词：孵化器绩效 动态演化 路径依赖 GMM动态面板 高新企业集聚 

分 类 号：F272.5[经济管理—企业管理]