2016—2023年自贡市大气污染物与医院非意外急救人次的时间序列分析  

A time series analysis of air pollutants and non-accidental emergency visits in Zigong City from 2016 to 2023

作　　者：文悦 黄伟[2] 蒋先雁[1] 李阳 阮仕娟 朱鸿斌[1] 师春立 WEN Yue;Huang Wei;JIANG Xianyan;LI Yang;RUAN Shijuan;ZHU Hongbin;SHI Chunli(Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chengdu 610041,Sichuan Province,China;Zigong Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Zigong 643000,Sichuan Province,China)

机构地区：[1]四川省疾病预防控制中心,成都610041 [2]自贡市疾病预防控制中心,四川自贡643000

出　　处：《职业卫生与病伤》2025年第1期20-27,共8页Occupational Health and Damage

基　　金：PM2.5暴露水平与慢性阻塞性肺炎的暴露效应关系及慢性阻塞性肺炎危险期人群生物标志物的研究(项目编号:川干研ZH2018-1801);四川省空气质量健康指数(AQHI)模型构建和预警技术研究(项目编号:ZX202304)

摘　　要：目的探讨自贡市大气污染物暴露对医院非意外急救人次的影响。方法收集自贡市2016年1月1日至2023年12月31日期间细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))、臭氧(O_(3~8 h))、可吸入颗粒物(PM_(10))、二氧化硫(SO_(2))等大气污染物的日均质量浓度,以及该期间自贡市日均相对湿度、日均气温、当地居民每日非意外急救人次等数据,并利用WPS Office 2024构建相应数据库;使用SPSS 22.0对所收集的气象、环保以及非意外急救数据进行描述性统计分析,检验水准α=0.05。采用R4.4.4软件中mgcv包创建广义相加模型(GAM)分析大气污染物对自贡市医院每日非意外急救人次的影响。结果自贡市2016年1月1日至2023年12月31日期间,PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、O_(3~8 h)、SO_(2)日均质量浓度分别为50.41μg/m^(3)、72.25μg/m^(3)、86.24μg/m^(3)和10.01μg/m^(3);医院日均非意外急救人次为28人次/天。Spearman秩相关结果表明,医院非意外急救总人次与PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)的浓度间均呈正相关关系,其r值分别0.164(P<0.001)、0.166(P<0.001);与SO_(2)、O_(3~8 h)和日均温度均呈负相关关系,其r值分别为-0.044(P<0.001)、-0.053(P<0.001)和-0.227(P<0.05)。单污染物模型分析结果表明,PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、O_(3~8 h)和SO_(2)对居民非意外急救人次影响单日滞后最大ER(95%CI)值分别为0.584%(0.314%,0.855%)、0.432%(0.219%,0.646%)、0.822%(0.581%,1.062%)和6.359%(3.492%,9.233%);而累积滞后效应中,PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、O_(3~8 h)和SO_(2)对居民非意外急救影响最大ER值为0.701%(0.357%,1.045%)、0.514%(0.245%,0.783%)、1.234%(0.862%,1.607%)和10.153%(6.263%,14.058%)。多污染物分析模型中,在包含PM_(2.5)的多污染物的模型中分别加入SO_(2)和O_(3)后ER值分别为0.380%、0.331%,差异有统计学意义(P<0.001);而包含PM_(10)的多污染模型中加入SO_(2)后ER值为0.254%,差异有统计学意义(P<0.001)。结论自贡市2016年1月1日至2023年12月31日期间自贡市大气污染物的暴露对居民非意外�Objective To investigate the impact of air pollutant exposure on the number of non-accidental emergency visits in hospitals in Zigong City.Methods The daily average mass concentrations of fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5)),ozone(O_(3-8 h)),nitrogen dioxide(NO_(2)),sulfur dioxide(SO_(2))and other air pollutants,as well as the data such as daily relative humidity,daily temperature and the daily number of non-accidental emergency visits of local residents in Zigong City from January 1,2016 to December 31,2023 were collected.WPS Office(2024)software was used to construct the corresponding database.SPSS 22.0 software was used for descriptive statistical analysis of the obtained data of meteorology,environment and non-accidental emergency.And the test level wasα=0.05.The generalized additive model(GAM)was created by the mgcv package in R 4.4.4 software to analyze the effect of air pollutants on daily non-accidental emergency visits in hospitals of Zigong City.Results From January 1,2016 to December 31,2023,the daily average mass concentrations of PM_(2.5),PM_(10),O_(3-8 h)and SO_(2)were 50.41μg/m^(3),72.25 mg/m^(3),86.24μg/m^(3)and 10.01μg/m^(3),respectively.The average number of daily non-accidental emergency visits in the hospital was 28 person-times/day.The results of Spearman rank correlation showed that the total number of non-accidental hospital visits was positively correlated with the concentrations of PM_(2.5)and PM_(10)(r=0.164 and 0.166,respectively,all P<0.001),and negatively correlated with the concentrations of SO_(2)and O_(3-8 h),and mean daily temperature,and their r values were-0.044(P<0.001),-0.053(P<0.001)and-0.227(P<0.05),respectively.The results of single pollutant model analysis showed that the maximum one-day lag ER(excess risk)with 95%CI(confidence interval)of the impact of PM_(2.5),PM_(10),O_(3-8 h)and SO_(2)on residents'non-accidental emergency visits were 0.584%(0.314%,0.855%),0.432%(0.219%,0.646%),0.822%(0.581%,1.062%)and 6.359%(3.492%,9.233%),respectively.Among the cumulative lag effect,

关 键 词：大气污染 非意外急救 时间序列分析 广义相加模型 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程] R122[医药卫生—环境卫生学]