债券违约冲击下地区信用恢复与挤出效应  

The Local Credit Recoveryand Crowding-out Effect following Credit Bond Default Shocks

作　　者：刘天铭 熊海芳[1] 王志强[1] Liu Tianming;Xiong Haifang;Wang Zhiqiang

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学金融学院,辽宁省大连市

出　　处：《金融学季刊》2024年第2期127-153,共27页Quarterly Journal of Finance

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目“‘一揽子化债’的政策一致性、市场预期与地方稳增长效果研究”(24YJC790201);“兴辽英才计划”文化名家暨“四个一批”人才(青年英才)项目(XLYC2210054);辽宁省社会科学规划基金青年项目“‘一揽子化债’对产业数字化升级的赋能效应研究”(L24CJY009)的资助

摘　　要：本文探究信用债违约事件后地区债务融资信用恢复情况、动态变化以及形成机制。本文发现,违约事件冲击会影响债券发行市场和地区企业信用恢复,其中,地区国有企业债券和城投债融资规模明显上升,而其他类型债券融资规模对应减少,即信用恢复过程中存在国企债券和城投债对其他债券的挤出效应。这种挤出效应来源于政府隐性担保而非企业信用质量。地区银行金融资源越匮乏,金融资源的错配情况越严重。地区债务融资信用恢复中的挤出效应存在明显的南北地区特点:在北方地区,挤出效应要强于全国平均水平,信用恢复速度较慢。本文的研究加深了对政府隐性担保与金融资源错配关系的理解,对促进区域经济协调统一发展、降低金融摩擦对金融风险和经济复苏带来的负面冲击提供政策启示。This paper empirically examines credit recovery,dynamie changes,and influencing mechanisms after credit bond defaults.We observe that default events impact the bond issuance market and local corporate credit recovery.The issuance of local Chengtou and state-owned enterprise(SOE)bonds has significantly increased,leading to a corresponding decrease in other bonds’issuance.This suggests a crowding-out effect from SOE and Chengtou bonds on other bonds during the credit recovery process,driven by implicit government guarantees rather than corporate creditquality.Scarcer credit resources in local banks exacerbate credit resource misallocation.Regional disparities in credit recovery are evident,with the northemn region experiencing a stronger crowding-out effect than the national average and slower credit recovery.Our research enhances understanding of the relationship between implicit government guarantees and credit resource misallocation,offering policy insights to foster coordinated regional development and mitigate the negative impact of financial friction on financial risks and economic recovery.

关 键 词：债券违约 信用恢复 挤出效应 政府隐性担保 

分 类 号：F832.51[经济管理—金融学]