基于CASA模型的黑龙江省植被净生态系统生产力时空分异及预测  

Spatial-temporal differentiation and prediction of vegetation net ecosystem productivity in Heilongjiang Province based on CASA model

作　　者：何正弘 He Zhenghong(Xinjiang Water Conservancy and Hydropower Survey Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Urumqi 830000,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆水利水电勘测设计研究院有限责任公司,新疆乌鲁木齐830000

出　　处：《吉林水利》2025年第2期63-69,共7页Jilin Water Resources

摘　　要：探究黑龙江省净生态系统生产力(NEP)的时空分异特征,对区域生态系统保护与恢复、合理利用与可持续发展具有重要意义。本文基于改进的CASA模型和土壤呼吸模型,结合MODIS、气象、地形数据估算黑龙江省2010~2020年植被NEP指数,并进一步探究NEP时空分异特征及变化趋势。结果表明:2010~2020年,黑龙江省NEP整体呈波动上升趋势,增长速率为4.74gC/m^(2)·a,多年NEP平均值为404gC/m^(2)·a;NEP空间变化趋势地域性差异显著,呈增加和减少趋势的区域占比分别为78.39%和17.53%,其中有6.55%的区域表现为极显著增加,主要分布在牡丹江市、松花江流域及大兴安岭东部地区;NEP未来变化整体趋向持续性,呈持续增加、潜在减少、潜在增加和持续减少的区域分别占58.44%、19.95%、5.65%和11.88%。Exploring the spatial-temporal differentiation characteristics of net ecosystem productivity(NEP)in Heilongjiang Province is of great significance for regional ecosystem protection and restoration,rational utilization,and sustainable development.Based on the improved CASA model and soil respiration model,combined with MODIS,meteorological,and topographic data,estimate the vegetation NEP index in Heilongjiang Province from 2010 to 2020,and further explore the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics and changing trends of NEP.The results show that,from 2010 to 2020,the overall NEP in Heilongjiang Province showed a fluctuating upward trend,with a growth rate of 4.74gC/m^(2)·a,and the average NEP over the years was 404gC/m^(2)·a;The spatial variation trend of NEP shows significant regional differences,with the proportion of regions showing an increasing and decreasing trend being 78.39%and 17.53%,respectively.6.55%of the areas showed a significant increase,mainly distributed in Mudanjiang City,Songhua River Basin,and eastern Daxing’an Mountains;The overall trend of NEP’s future changes is towards sustainability,with regions showing continuous increase,potential decrease,potential increase,and continuous decrease accounting for 58.44%,19.95%,5.65%,and 11.88%,respectively.

关 键 词：净生态系统生产力 CASA模型 时空分异 黑龙江省 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]