基于实数阶灰色预测模型的我国高等职业教育发展规模预测  

Prediction of the Development Scale of Chinese Higher Vocational Education Using the Grey Prediction Model with Real Order

作　　者：毛翠微 苟小义 庹一波 曾波 MAO Cuiwei;GOU Xiaoyi;TUO Yibo;ZENG Bo(Chongqing Key Laboratory of Spatial Data Mining and Big Data Integration for Ecology and Environment,Chongqing Finance and Economics College,Chongqing 401320,China;School of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing,Jiangsu 211106,China;School of Management Science and Engineering,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆财经学院生态环境空间信息数据挖掘与大数据集成重庆市重点实验室,重庆401320 [2]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京211106 [3]重庆工商大学管理科学与工程学院,重庆400067

出　　处：《复旦学报(自然科学版)》2025年第1期14-23,共10页Journal of Fudan University:Natural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72071023);重庆市教育委员会科学技术研究重大项目(KJZD-M202300801);重庆市教育委员会科学技术研究重点项目(KJZD-K202202102);重庆市自然科学基金(CSTB2023NSCQ-MSX0365、CSTB2023NSCQ-MSX0380);重庆市研究生导师团队建设项目(yds223006)。

摘　　要：高等职业教育作为我国现代国民教育体系的重要组成部分,科学预测其发展规模对我国政府部门制定相关政策措施具有积极意义。为此,本文基于三参数离散灰色模型构建了一个累加阶数面向全实数(r∈R)的新型灰色预测模型HTDGM(1,1,r)。应用该模型对我国高等职业教育规模进行建模,结果显示当阶数r^(*)=-1.2611时HTDGM(1,1,r)的综合模型误差仅2.03%,明显优于正实数最优阶数(r#=2.2694)、1阶及0.5阶条件下的三参数离散灰色模型(其综合模型误差分别为4.79%、9.41%和7.28%)。应用HTDGM(1,1,r)对我国高等职业教育规模进行预测,结果表明未来5年我国高等职业教育在校学生人数将快速增长,政府部门应科学制定相应政策措施以适应未来我国高等职业教育规模迅速扩大的各项需要。Higher Vocational Education(HVE)as an important part of China's modern national education system,it is of positive significance for Chinese government departments to effectively formulate countermeasures by scientifically predicting its development scale.To this end,based on the three-parameter discrete grey model TDGM(1,1),a new grey prediction model HTDGM(1,1,r)with the accumulative order facing the real number field(r∈R)is constructed in this paper.The HTDGM(1,1,r)model is used to simulate the scale of HVE in China.The results show that the comprehensive model error of HTDGM(1,1,r^(*))is only 2.03%when the order r^(*)=-1.2611,which is obviously better than that of the TDGM(1,1)under the conditions of optimal order of positive real number order(r#=2.2694),1 order and 0.5 order(The comprehensive model errors are respectively 4.79%,9.41%and 7.28%).Meanwhile,the development scale of Chinese HVE is predicted by HTDGM(1,1,r^(*)),which shows that the number of students in Chinese HVE will increase rapidly in the future.Then,China's government departments should scientifically formulate various countermeasures to meet the needs of the rapid expansion of China's HVE in the future.

关 键 词：我国高等职业教育发展规模 实数阶灰色生成算子 三参数离散灰色预测模型 HTDGM(1 1 r)模型 

分 类 号：N941.5[自然科学总论—系统科学] G521.9[文化科学—教育学]