山东省菏泽市牡丹低温灾害风险评估  

Risk Assessment of Low-temperature Disaster on Peony in Heze,Shandong Province

作　　者：张翠英 郭建平[3] 翟建青[4] 郝晓雷 王俊霖 曹洁[1,5] ZHANG Cui-ying;GUO Jian-ping;ZHAI Jian-qing;HAO Xiao-lei;WANG Jun-lin;CAO Jie(Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong Meteorological Administration,Jinan 250031,China;Heze Meteorological Bureau of Shandong Province,Heze 274000;Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081;National Climate Center,Beijing 100081;Shandong Climate Center,Jinan 250031)

机构地区：[1]山东省气象局防灾减灾重点实验室,济南250031 [2]山东省菏泽市气象局,菏泽274000 [3]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [4]国家气候中心,北京100081 [5]山东省气候中心,济南250031

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2025年第2期249-257,共9页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：山东省气象局面上课题(2021sdqxm14);“十三五”山东重大气象工程项目(鲁发改农经[2017]97号)。

摘　　要：牡丹是山东省菏泽市重要的特色经济作物,春季低温冻害是菏泽牡丹面临的主要气象灾害,不仅影响牡丹花期、产量,甚至影响当地特色旅游业和经济效益。利用1978-2020年山东菏泽9个国家气象观测站、2005年以来150个区域自动站观测资料及牡丹物候和灾害资料,识别冷空气和霜冻过程,通过选取典型致灾因子开展单灾种危险性评估,并对单灾种危险性加权求和得到低温灾害危险性指数,最后基于风险三要素方法定量评估菏泽牡丹低温灾害风险。结果表明:菏泽市巨野县和郓城县低温灾害高危险性面积比例最大,分别为9.8%和9.5%;曹县和牡丹区高危险性面积最小,低于0.3%;受危险性和牡丹暴露度共同作用,低温灾害高风险区主要分布在菏泽市东北部和东南部;此外,牡丹主要种植区牡丹区城区低温灾害危险性较高,牡丹受灾风险较大,中西部则为低风险区,尤其牡丹区西部、南部和东部低温致灾危险性较低。未来可考虑扩大观赏牡丹种植面积,增加花农经济效益。Peony is an important specialty cash crop in Heze city,Shandong province.Low temperature and freezing damage in spring is the main meteorological disaster faced by peony in Heze city,which not only affects the flowering time and yield of peony,but also affects the local characteristic tourism and economic benefits.This study was based on the observational data of 9 national meteorological stations from 1978 to 2020 and 150 regional automatic stations since 2005,as well as the phenology and disaster data of peony in Heze,Shandong province.Firstly,the cold air and frost processes were identified,and a single-disaster hazard assessment was carried out by selecting typical disaster factors for example the duration days,maximum the drop of daily minimum temperature,extreme minimum temperature of cold air processes and the days,mean temperature,minimum temperature of frost disaster.Secondly,the risk index of low temperature disaster was obtained by weighted sum of the single disaster hazard.Finally,the low temperature disaster risk of Mudan in Heze was quantitatively assessed based on the three-factor methodology of hazard,exposure and vulnerability.The results showed that Juye county and Yuncheng county of Heze city had the largest proportions of high level hazard areas of low temperature disaster,which were 9.8%and 9.5%respectively.The proportions of areas with high level hazard in Caoxian county and Mudan district were the smallest,both less than 0.3%.Affected by low temperature risk and peony exposure,the high risk areas of low temperature disaster mainly distributed in the northeast and southeast of Heze city.In addition,the urban area of Mudan,where peonies were mainly planted,had a higher risk of low temperature disaster leading to a greater risk of peony disaster.The central and western areas were low risk areas,especially the western,southern and eastern parts of peony area,where the risks of low temperature disaster were lower.This research suggested that the planting area of ornamental peony can be expanded

关 键 词：特色经济作物 气象灾害 冷空气/霜冻 危险性 风险 

分 类 号：S426[农业科学—植物保护] S685.11