房价变动、家庭债务风险与财富分配效应--兼论房产税与住房补贴双重改革  

Housing Price Fluctuations,Household Debt Risk,and Wealth Distribution:A Discussion on Housing Property Tax and Housing Subsidy Reform

作　　者：孟宪春[1] MENG Xianchun(Center for Quantitative Economics,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2025年第1期17-29,共13页Modern Economic Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“房价上涨、家庭债务集中与财富不平等:理论机制、实证检验与对策研究”(72203072);研究阐释党的十九届六中全会精神国家社会科学基金重点项目“促进全体人民共同富裕的路径研究”(22AZD018);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“新时期共同富裕方向的经济高质量发展的宏观调控体系协同优化研究”(22JJD790021)。

摘　　要：如何设计房地产改革方案以兼顾防范房价下跌风险和促进家庭住房财富均等化双重目标,是房地产市场长效机制建设面临的重要任务。在厘清房价变动影响家庭债务风险和财富分配内在机制的基础上,对上述问题进行了理论探讨。研究表明,对于受到房贷约束的低财富家庭而言,只能获得房价上涨带来的部分财富增量,却承担了房价下降造成的全部财富损失,因此,房价上涨或下降均可能通过引起低财富家庭房产净值上升更少或损失更多,导致家庭债务风险上升和财富差距扩大。政策仿真结果显示,征收房产税的单一政策可能会降低房价,引起低财富家庭的财富损失更多,拉大家庭财富差距,而房产税搭配向低财富家庭提供住房补贴的组合方案,则可以降低家庭债务风险和改善家庭财富分配。特别地,相较于固定的住房补贴率,通过盯住家庭配置住房面积逆向调整住房补贴率并保持低调整频率的政策模式,更有利于房地产市场平稳运行和最小化福利损失目标的实现。With the robust development of the real estate market,mortgage loans and housing have emerged as the primary components of Chinese household debt and wealth,respectively.Consequently,fluctuations in housing prices have become critical factors influencing household debt risk and wealth distribution.Since 2021,the real estate market has encountered considerable risks.Therefore,how can we design a reform strategy for real estate that promotes the equalization of household housing wealth while mitigating the risks associated with declining housing prices?This is a crucial challenge that must be addressed in the effort to establish a long-term,stable operational mechanism for the real estate market.This paper employs a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium(DSGE)model with heterogeneous households to explain how fluctuations in housing prices impact household debt risk and wealth distribution.It also seeks to suggest policy measures aimed at reducing household debt risks and improving wealth distribution.Research shows that low-wealth families,constrained by housing loans,can only benefit minimally from increases in housing prices,while they suffer the full brunt of wealth losses when prices fall.As a result,fluctuations in housing prices can lead to either slight gains or significant losses in the net value of properties owned by low-wealth families,which in turn heightens household debt risk and exacerbates wealth inequality.The results of policy simulations reveal that a standalone housing property tax may depress housing prices,resulting in greater wealth losses for low-wealth families and further widening the wealth gap among households.Conversely,a combination of housing property taxes and housing subsidies for low-wealth families can effectively reduce household debt risk and improve wealth distribution.Specifically,compared to a fixed housing subsidy rate,a policy model that adjusts the housing subsidy rate inversely—by focusing on housing area purchased by low-wealth families and maintaining a low frequency

关 键 词：房价变动 家庭杠杆率 家庭财富分配 房产税 住房补贴 

分 类 号：F29[经济管理—国民经济]