基于CMAC网络的风电场风速预测方法研究  

Research on Wind Speed Prediction Method for Wind Farms Based on CMAC Network

作　　者：叶剑辉 Ye Jianhui(China Electric Construction Group Fujian Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Fuzhou Fujian 350008,China)

机构地区：[1]中国电建集团福建工程有限公司,福建福州350008

出　　处：《现代工业经济和信息化》2024年第12期170-172,共3页Modern Industrial Economy and Informationization

摘　　要：针对海上风电场中风具有间歇性、随机性和波动性的特点,研究基于CMAC网络的风速预测方法,提出基于黑箱模型的风速预测机制,探讨了用于风速预测的CMAC网络结构。进而提出基于历史风速数据序列的样本重构策略,在划分训练样本和测试样本的基础上,训练得到风速预测CMAC网络,并对其预测精度进行分析。结果表明,所构建的CMAC网络具有足够的预测精度,所提供的风速方法可行有效。Aiming at the offshore wind farms where the wind is characterized by intermittency,randomness and volatility,the wind speed prediction method based on CMAC network is investigated,the wind speed prediction mechanism based on the black-box model is proposed,and the structure of the CMAC network for wind speed prediction is discussed.Then a sample reconstruction strategy based on the historical wind speed data series is proposed,and based on the division of training samples and test samples,the wind speed prediction CMAC network is trained to obtain the wind speed prediction,and its prediction accuracy is analyzed.The results show that the constructed CMAC network has sufficient prediction accuracy and the proposed wind speed method is feasible and effective.

关 键 词：风速 CMAC网络 样本重构 预测 黑箱模型 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]