物质平衡原则下的碳排放绩效驱动因素研究——来自全球78个经济体的经验证据  

A Study on the Driving Factors of Carbon Emission Performance under the Principle of Material Balance:Empirical Evidence from 78 Economies around the World

作　　者：王恰 WANG Qia(Business School,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China;Institute of Quantitative and Technological Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学商学院,北京102488 [2]中国社会科学院数量经济技术与技术经济研究所,北京100732

出　　处：《中国石油大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第1期1-10,共10页Journal of China University of Petroleum (Edition of Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(72303240);中国社会科学院经济大数据与政策评估实验室(2024SYZH004)。

摘　　要：基于物质平衡原则,采用一种把能源投入和碳排放设定为弱可处置的DEA模型,对2012—2019年全球78个经济体的碳排放绩效进行测算,并将其变化分解为技术效应、调节效应和结构效应,利用LMDI分解法解析这三种效应对于碳排放绩效提升的贡献。研究发现:2012—2019年,78个经济体碳排放绩效整体提升了5.9%,其中已达峰经济体提升22.0%,未达峰经济体下降11.1%;对于这两类经济体,技术效应和结构效应是驱动碳排放绩效变化的主要因素。在此基础上,进一步考察了全球碳排放最多的10个国家的碳排放绩效驱动因素。美国和日本碳排放绩效驱动因素以调节效应为主,两国致力于在保障经济发展的同时,寻找碳排放水平更低的经济发展模式;德国和中国以结构效应为主,这两个国家则致力于优化能源消费结构,通过非化石能源替代实现碳排放绩效的提升;俄罗斯、韩国、印度和印度尼西亚这四个国家以技术效应为主,其做法可以为正在努力提升技术效率的国家提供借鉴;伊朗和沙特阿拉伯也以技术效应为主,但其作用是反向的。Based on the material balance principle,this paper employed DEA model that sets energy and carbon emission as weak dis-posable to measure the carbon emission performance of 78 economies in the world from 2012 to 2019.Then,the carbon emission per-formance changes of the economies are decomposed into technological effects,extra scale adjustment effects,and structural effects.The LMDI decomposition method is used to analyze the contributions of these three effects to the improvement of carbon emission perform-ance.Our results show that from 2012 to 2019,the overall carbon emission performance of 78 economies increased by 5.9%,with e-conomies that have achieved emission peaks increasing by 22.0%and economies that have not reached their peaks decreasing by 11.1%.For these two types of economies,technological and structural effects are the main factors driving changes in carbon emission performance.This article further examines the driving factors of carbon emission performance in the top 10 countries with the highest global carbon emissions.The driving factors for carbon emission performance in the United States and Japan are mainly adjustment effects.They are committed to seeking economic development models with lower carbon emissions while ensuring economic develop-ment.The driving factors for carbon emission performance in Germany and China are mainly structural effects.They are committed to optimizing the energy consumption structure and improving carbon emission performance through non fossil energy substitution.The driving factors for carbon emission performance in the four countries of Russia,Republic of Korea,India,and Indonesia are mainly technological effects.They can provide reference for countries that are striving to improve technological efficiency.The driving factors for carbon emission performance of Iran and Saudi Arabia are also mainly technological effects,but their effects are reversed.

关 键 词：碳排放绩效 物质平衡 弱可处置 LMDI 国际比较 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学] X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]