考虑不确定性的无人机安全性评估及决策分析  

Safety assessment and decision analysis of UAV considering uncertainty

作　　者：田毅 饶浩昌 肖女娥 TIAN Yi;RAO Haochang;XIAO Nyue(College of Safety Science and Engineering,CA UC,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学安全科学与工程学院,天津300300

出　　处：《中国民航大学学报》2025年第1期83-88,96,共7页Journal of Civil Aviation University of China

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项(3122019165)。

摘　　要：定量安全性评估是验证无人机是否满足安全性要求的重要手段。本文首先针对无人机部件失效分布存在参数不确定性的问题,利用贝叶斯理论对基本事件的失效分布参数进行修正,得到顶事件的失效概率;然后借助贝叶斯决策理论完成对顶事件的安全决策分析;最终将无人机的安全性评估完善为整套的评估-决策分析流程。研究表明:以某型无人机运行过程中的数据链通信产生的错误信息为例,能够实现上述顶事件失效概率的计算过程和贝叶斯决策的计算过程。Quantitative safety assessment is an important means to verify whether unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)meets the safety requirements.Aiming at the parameter uncertainty of UAV component failure distribution,firstly,the failure distribution parameters of basic events are modified by Bayesian theory to obtain the failure probability of top events.Then,the safety decision analysis of top events is completed with the help of Bayesian decision theory.Fi-nally,the safety evaluation of UAV is improved into a complete assessment and decision analysis process.The re-search shows that the calculation process of top event failure probability and Bayesian decision can be realized by taking the error information generated by data link communication during the operation of a UAV as an example.

关 键 词：不确定性 安全性评估 无人机 贝叶斯理论 贝叶斯决策 

分 类 号：V328[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]