数智化转型平抑了制造企业供应链风险吗?——基于供需关系的视角  

Does the Digital-intelligence Transformation Stabilize the Supply Chain Risk of Manufacturing Enterprises?From the Perspective of Supply and Demand

作　　者：郭家琛 赵景峰[1] 刘珊 王智新 Guo Jiachen;Zhao Jingfeng;Liu Shan;Wang Zhixin(School of Economics and Management,NorthWest University;School of Economics,Hebei University)

机构地区：[1]西北大学经济管理学院,710127 [2]河北大学经济学院,071002

出　　处：《经济评论》2025年第1期70-86,共17页Economic Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“数字产业价值空间集聚及其对区域经济发展影响的统计测度研究”(20ATJ004);国家社会科学基金一般项目“新贸易保护下中国对外贸易高质量发展的产业逻辑”(20FJLB008);西北大学研究生创新项目“数智化对制造业碳减排的影响研究”(CX2024011)的资助。

摘　　要：数智化是数字技术和现代智能化生产组织方式相融合的结果,对于强化供应链稳定性至关重要。本文选取2008—2022年制造业上市企业作为研究样本,探究数智化转型对制造企业供应链风险的影响。研究发现,数智化转型对企业供应链风险具有平抑效应。当企业未发生海外投资以及面临较高的环境不确定性时,数智化转型对企业供应链风险的平抑效应更强,并且这种平抑效应在资本密集型企业的成长期和技术密集型企业的成熟期中尤为显著。机制检验表明,数智化转型主要通过信息流、实物流和资金流平抑了企业供应链风险,且三条路径在供应链上游供应商、下游客户的供需关系中均发挥边际效应。本文可为理解企业灵活防范供应链风险提供理论线索,对整体提升供应链自主可控能力和构建数智化时代制造企业核心竞争力具有重要的现实意义。Digital-intelligence is the result of integrating digital technology with modern intelligent production organization methods, which is crucial for strengthening supply chain stability. Research has found that digital-intelligence transformation mitigates supply chain risks for Manufacturing enterprises. When enterprises have not made overseas investments and face high environmental uncertainty, digital-intelligence transformation has a stronger stabilizing effect on supply chain risks. This stabilizing effect is particularly significant during the growth period of capital-intensive enterprises and the maturity period of technology-intensive enterprises. Mechanism testing shows that digital-intelligence transformation primarily mitigates supply chain risks through information flow, physical flow, and capital flow, with all three paths playing a marginal role in the supply and demand relationship between upstream suppliers and downstream customers in the supply chain. This paper can provide theoretical insights for understanding the flexible prevention of supply chain risks by enterprises and has important practical significance for improving the overall independence and controllability of the supply chain, as well as building the core competitiveness of manufacturing enterprises in the digital-intelligence age.

关 键 词：数智化转型 供需关系 供应链风险 平抑效应 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理] F425[经济管理—国民经济]