居民消费潜力综合评估的非参数统计研究  

Non-parametric Statistical Study on Comprehensive Evaluation of Residents’Consumption Potential

作　　者：陈旭东 CHEN Xu-dong(Department of Social Science,Quanzhou Medical College,Quanzhou 362011,Fujian,China)

机构地区：[1]泉州医学高等专科学校社科公共部,福建泉州362011

出　　处：《红河学院学报》2025年第1期135-140,共6页Journal of Honghe University

摘　　要：以我国居民消费情况为综合评价研究对象,选取我国2010—2022年消费潜力四个主要评价指标的面板数据为研究案例,运用WRSR-熵权法对居民消费潜力综合指标静态分析,并运用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)对居民消费潜力影响因素进行动态预测计算和分析。研究显示,2010—2022年我国消费情况呈现稳步增长态势,居民人均可支配收入和人均GDP指数的增长对居民消费潜力的提高起到了重要的作用,同时消费价格指数的上升对消费潜力产生了一定的影响,需要注意的是,较高的失业率对居民消费潜力的影响比较明显,这些因素的作用不仅仅在这段时间内产生影响,在未来的消费潜力预测中也可能会继续发挥作用。该研究旨在拓宽居民消费情况的研究视域,丰富消费市场指标对居民消费潜力发展的影响力测度方法,为推动经济社会发展提供理论支持,为相关部门管理者提供科学合理的决策支持。Taking the consumption situation of Chinese residents as the comprehensive evaluation research object,panel data of four main evaluation indicators of consumption potential in China from 2010 to 2022 were selected as the research case.The WRSR entropy weight method was used to statically analyze the comprehensive indicators of residents’consumption potential,and the grey prediction model GM(1,1)was used to dynamically predict and analyze the influencing factors of residents’consumption potential.Research shows that China’s consumption situation has shown a steady growth trend from 2010 to 2022.The increase in per capita disposable income and per capita GDP index has played an important role in improving residents’consumption potential.At the same time,the rise in consumer price index has had a certain impact on consumption potential.It should be noted that a higher unemployment rate has a more significant impact on residents’consumption potential,and these factors may not only have an impact during this period,but also continue to play a role in predicting future consumption potential.

关 键 词：居民消费潜力 综合评估 RSR综合评价法 熵权法 灰色预测模型 

分 类 号：O29[理学—应用数学]