基于信息量模型的进藏公路灾害风险区划  

Risk Zoning of Hazards along Highways to Xizang Based on Information Model

作　　者：刘卫民[1,2] 郭冠淼 蔡庆娥 尉学勇 董小波[2] 陈培聪 LIU Weimin;GUO Guanmiao;CAI Qing’e;YU Xueyong;DONG Xiaobo;CHEN Peicong(CCCC First Highway Consultants Co.,Ltd.,Xi’an,Shaanxi 710075,China;Xi’an CCCC Highway Geotechnical Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Xi’an,Shaanxi 710075,China)

机构地区：[1]中交第一公路勘察设计研究院有限公司,陕西西安710075 [2]西安中交公路岩土工程有限责任公司,陕西西安710075

出　　处：《中外公路》2025年第1期11-19,共9页Journal of China & Foreign Highway

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(编号:2022YFC3002600)。

摘　　要：青藏高原公路沿线灾害频发,严重影响道路通行且威胁人民生命财产安全,开展进藏公路灾害风险评估区划对提升进藏公路防灾减灾能力具有重要意义。该文通过总结进藏公路区域地质环境与灾害发育规律,分析公路交通运行宏观表现,并在此基础上以新藏公路为研究对象,根据区域地质环境及气象灾害主控因素有针对性地选取评价因子。采用基于多源数据融合的信息量模型建立新藏公路沿线水毁灾害、地质灾害与综合灾害风险评价模型,得到不同评价因子信息量值,绘制新藏公路水毁灾害与地质灾害易发性评价图、危险性评价分区图以及综合灾害危险性评价分区图。研究结果表明:地质灾害高和极高危险区域中包含了96.09%的已知地质灾害隐患点,水毁灾害高和极高危险区域中包含了94.74%的已知水毁灾害隐患点,综合灾害危险性评价分区图中高和极高危险区包含了95.76%的已知灾害隐患点,可以真实地反映藏区公路灾害风险状况,验证了指标方法的有效性。The frequent occurrence of hazards along the highways in the Qinghai‒Xizang Plateau seriously affects road traffic and threatens the security of lives and property of the people.Conducting a risk zoning assessment of hazards along the highways to Xizang is crucial to enhancing hazard prevention and mitigation.This paper summarized the regional geological environment and development patterns of hazards along the highways to Xizang and analyzed the overall performance of highway traffic operations.On this basis,the Xinjiang‒Xizang Highway was taken as the research object,and the evaluation factors were selected based on the regional geological environment and the main controlling factors of meteorological hazards.By using an information model based on multi-source data fusion,a risk assessment model was established for flood hazards,geological hazards,and comprehensive hazards along the Xinjiang‒Xizang Highway.The information value of different evaluation factors was obtained,and the susceptibility maps for flood hazards and geological hazards,a risk zoning map,and a comprehensive hazard risk zoning map were drawn.The results show that high and extremely high-risk zones for geological hazards contain 96.09%of the known geological hazard risk points,and the high and extremely high-risk zones for flood hazards include 94.74%of the known flood hazard risk points.The comprehensive hazard risk zoning map shows that the high and extremely high-risk zones contain 95.76%of the known hazard risk points.These maps demonstrate the actual hazard risks along the highways to Xizang,validating the effectiveness of the proposed method.

关 键 词：道路工程 进藏公路 灾害风险区划 多源数据融合 信息量模型 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]