2002—2022年气候变化和人类活动对山西省植被恢复的贡献  

Contribution of climate change and human activity to vegetation recovery in Shanxi Province from 2002 to 2022

作　　者：赵瑜琦 赵鹏云 许泽海 李志刚 ZHAO Yuqi;ZHAO Pengyun;XU Zehai;LI Zhigang(Shanxi Wutaishan State-owned Forest Administration Bureau,Xinzhou 034000,Shanxi,China;School of Technology,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]山西省五台山国有林管理局,山西忻州034000 [2]北京林业大学工学院,北京100083

出　　处：《应用生态学报》2025年第1期219-226,共8页Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology

摘　　要：2002年以来山西省全面开展了生态保护与修复工作,动态评估山西省植被时空变化,对及时调整生态建设措施、保障工程实施效果具有重要意义。本研究基于2002—2022年归一化植被指数(NDVI)、气温、降水量数据,采用像元二分法、变化趋势分析和多元回归残差分析等方法,模拟山西省及其11个市域植被覆盖时空变化特征,通过比较潜在植被NDVI与实际植被NDVI确定气候变化和人类活动对其植被恢复的相对贡献。结果表明:2002—2022年间,山西省各市的植被以中高和高覆盖度为主,其中,晋城市的植被覆盖度最高,朔州市最低。气候变化和人类活动共同促进山西省生长季植被NDVI快速增长(增速5.4×10^(-3)·a^(-1)),显著增长区域面积占比72.1%,市域范围内,吕梁市NDVI增长最快(增速7.3×10^(-3)·a^(-1))。人类活动对山西省植被恢复起明显促进作用,气候变化以中度促进为主,相对贡献率分别为76.3%和23.7%。长治市、晋城市、运城市人类活动相对贡献率均在90%以上,气候变化明显促进了吕梁市植被恢复。受气候变化轻微抑制、人类活动中度抑制,太原市、吕梁市、晋中市交界处及少数城市中心NDVI明显下降。山西省植被NDVI显著增加,整体覆盖度已趋于较高水平,但北部地区植被覆盖度偏低。人类活动相对贡献率在南部地区最高,气候变化对中西部区域的植被恢复作用较明显。Shanxi Province has fully implemented ecological protection and restoration initiatives since 2002. Assessing the spatiotemporal variations in vegetation across Shanxi is crucial for timely adjustments to ecological construction measures and ensuring their effectiveness. Based on normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI), temperature, and precipitation data from 2002 to 2022, we employed the pixel dichotomy method, trend analysis, and multiple regression residual analysis to simulate the spatiotemporal variations of vegetation cover in all the 11 muni-cipal regions of Shanxi Province. By comparing potential NDVI with actual NDVI, we assessed the relative contributions of climate change and human activity to vegetation restoration. The results showed that vegetation coverage in different cities of Shanxi Province was mainly medium-high and high cover from 2002 to 2022, with Jincheng sho-wing the highest coverage and Shuozhou showing the lowest. Climate change and human activity together promoted rapid NDVI growth during the growing season in Shanxi Province, with a growth rate of 5.4×10^(-3)·a^(-1). The areas with significant NDVI increase accounted for 72.1% of the total area. Within the municipalities, Lyuliang demonstrated the fastest NDVI growth rate(7.3×10^(-3)·a^(-1)). Human activity played a significant role in promoting vegetation restoration in Shanxi Province, while climate change had moderate contribution, with relative contribution rates of 76.3% and 23.7%, respectively. In Changzhi, Jincheng, and Yuncheng, the relative contribution rates of human activity exceeded 90%. Climate change notably facilitated vegetation restoration in Lyuliang. NDVI decreased signi-ficantly at the junction of Taiyuan, Lyuliang, and Jinzhong and in several city centers, slightly suppressed by climate change and moderately suppressed by human activity. The NDVI in Shanxi Province was significantly positive, and overall vegetation cover had reached a relatively high level. But, vegetation cover remained low in northern

关 键 词：植被覆盖度 归一化植被指数 气候变化 人类活动 贡献分析 山西省 

分 类 号：X171.4[环境科学与工程—环境科学] Q948[生物学—植物学]