1954—2020年北江流域枯季径流极值特征分析  

Characteristics of Extreme Runoff in Beijiang River Basin during Dry Season from 1954 to 2020

作　　者：曾志平 郑炎辉 周月英 顾西辉[5] 何艳虎 ZENG Zhiping;ZHENG Yanhui;ZHOU Yueying;GU Xihui;HE Yanhu(Qingyuan Hydrology Sub-Bureau of Guangdong Province,Qingyuan 511500,China;School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen 518055,China;Guangzhou Franzero Water Technology Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510663,China;School of Resources and Planning,Guangzhou Xinhua University,Guangzhou 510520,China;School of Environmental Studies,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China;School of Ecology,Environment and Resources,Guangdong University of Technology,Guangzhou 510006,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省水文局清远水文分局,广东清远511500 [2]南方科技大学环境科学与工程学院,广东深圳518055 [3]广州丰泽源水利科技有限公司,广东广州510663 [4]广州新华学院资源与城乡规划学院,广东广州510520 [5]中国地质大学(武汉)环境学院,湖北武汉430074 [6]广东工业大学生态环境与资源学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《人民珠江》2025年第2期29-36,共8页Pearl River

基　　金：国家自然科学青年基金项目(52209025);广州新华学院校级大学生社会实践教学基地(2022D002)。

摘　　要：基于北江流域控制站石角站1954—2020年逐日平均流量资料,采用水文变动指标IHA(Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration)法、启发式分割算法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验法、小波分析等方法分析北江不同时间尺度的枯季径流极值的分布特征、趋势性、变异性和周期。结果表明:①北江枯季径流极值出现时间主要集中在枯季中后期,次年1、2月是枯季径流极值频发的时段,当出现短时间尺度枯季径流极值时,高概率同时出现长时间尺度枯季极值中,概率超64%;②北江枯季平均流量、年最小1 d日均流量和年最小90 d日均流量3项极值指标变异不显著,年最小3 d日均流量、年最小7 d日均流量和年最小30 d日均流量等3项极值指标变异显著,且突变点均在1970年;③北江枯季径流极值指标均呈上升趋势,其中年最小7 d平均流量、年最小30 d平均流量和年最小90 d平均流量分别以每年1.12、1.60、1.87 m^(3)/s的趋势显著上升;④从不同时间尺度的枯季径流极值指标变异与趋势来看,水利工程建设等人类活动主要是对中时间尺度的枯季径流起到显著影响;⑤北江枯季径流极值指标均存在3~4个明显的震荡周期,可大致分为22~34 a大尺度的长震荡周期、16~20 a中尺度的中震荡周期和7~11 a小尺度短震荡周期,且其周期震荡情况具有高度的相似性。This paper utilized the daily average flow data from 1954 to 2020 at the Shijiao control station within the Beijiang River Basin.It also employed indicators of hydrological alteration(IHA),heuristic segmentation algorithms,Mann-Kendall trend test,and wavelet analysis to examine the distribution characteristics,trends,variability,and cycle of extreme runoff in the Beijiang River Basin during dry season across various time scales.The results are as follows:①The extreme runoff in the Beijiang River Basin during dry season predominantly occurs in the middle and later stages of the dry season,with January and February of the following year having frequent occurrences of extreme runoff.If a short-term extreme runoff during dry season is observed,there is a high probability of exceeding 64%that a long-term extreme runoff during dry season will emerge.②The variability of the three extreme indicators for the average flow,annual minimum 1-day average flow,and annual minimum 90-day average flow in the Beijiang River Basin during dry season is not significant.In contrast,the variability of the extreme indicators for the annual minimum 3-day average flow,annual minimum 7-day average flow,and annual minimum 30-day average flow is significant,with all significant change points occurring in 1970.③The extreme runoff indicators for the Beijiang River Basin during dry season are all trending upwards.Specifically,the annual minimum 7-day average flow,annual minimum 30-day average flow,and annual minimum 90-day average flow are increasing significantly at an annual rate of 1.12,1.60 and 1.87 m^(3)/s,respectively.④According to the variability and trend of extreme runoff indicators during dry season across different time scales,the construction of water conservancy projects has a significant impact on the mid-time scale runoff during dry season.⑤The extreme runoff indicators for the Beijiang River Basin during dry season exhibit 3~4 distinct oscillation cycles.These can be roughly divided into long oscillation cycles on a lar

关 键 词：枯水期 径流 极值 北江流域 

分 类 号：TV21[水利工程—水文学及水资源]