京津冀及周边地区新型城镇化对碳排放强度的空间效应  

Spatial Effect of the New-type Urbanization in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region and Its Surrounding Areas on the Carbon Emission Intensity

作　　者：李健[1,2] 李庆庆 LI Jian;LI Qing-qing(School of Management,Tianjin University of Technology,Tianjin 300382,China;Research Institute of Circular Economy,Tianjin University of Technology,Tianjin 300382,China)

机构地区：[1]天津理工大学管理学院,天津300382 [2]天津理工大学循环经济研究院,天津300382

出　　处：《环境科学》2025年第2期625-635,共11页Environmental Science

基　　金：贵州省哲学社会科学规划重大项目(23GZZB17)。

摘　　要：鉴于京津冀及周边地区是我国大气污染防治重点区域之一,检验其空气质量对新型城镇化与碳排放强度关系的影响关乎到该区域的可持续性发展.基于2009~2021年京津冀及周边“2+26”城市的面板数据,通过构造空气质量距离嵌套权重矩阵,借助空间杜宾模型和门槛效应模型检验二者之间的内在关系.结果表明:(1)该区域的新型城镇化对碳排放强度存在较强的抑制作用;(2)新型城镇化发展对其相邻地区的碳排放强度存在显著的正向空间溢出效应,空气质量距离是影响空间溢出的主要因素,但影响程度小于邻接距离;(3)在空气质量为门槛变量下,新型城镇化对碳排放强度的抑制作用呈递减的趋势.基于此,提出推进新型城镇化与碳减排协调发展,加强城市跨区域协同治理,加大空气质量达标管理力度等建议.Given that the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region and its surrounding areas are one of the key areas for air pollution prevention and control in China,testing the impact of air quality on the relationship between new-type urbanization and carbon emission intensity is related to the sustainable development of the region.Based on the panel data of the BeijingTianjin-Hebei Region and the surrounding “2+26” cities from 2009 to 2021,the nesting weight matrix of air quality distance was constructed,and the internal relationship was tested with the help of the spatial Dubin model and the threshold effect model.The research results showed that:(1) The new-type urbanization in this region had a strong inhibitory effect on carbon emission intensity.(2) The new-type urbanization development had a significant positive space spillover effect on the carbon emission intensity in the adjacent areas.The air quality distance was the main factor affecting space overflow,but the influence degree was less than the adjacent distance.(3) The inhibitory effect of the new urbanization on carbon emission intensity and air quality was the threshold variable.Based on this,suggestions were put forward to promote the coordinated development of new-type urbanization and carbon emission reduction,strengthen cross-regional coordination of cities,and strengthen the management of air quality standards.

关 键 词：新型城镇化 碳排放强度 空间效应 京津冀及周边地区 SDM模型 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]