基于GIS的古溪沟山洪灾害脆弱性精细化评价  

Refined assessment of mountain flood disaster vulnerability in Guxi Gully based on GIS

作　　者：肖慧文 熊俊楠[1] 崔兴洁 雍志玮 王启盛 贾倩 XIAO Huiwen;XIONG Junnan;CUI Xingjie;YONG Zhiwei;WANG Qisheng;JIA Qian(School of Civil Engineering and Surveying,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,China;Natural Resources Bureau of Fucheng District,Mianyang City,Mianyang 621000,China;School of Geoscience and Technology,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,China)

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学土木工程与测绘学院,四川成都610500 [2]绵阳市涪城区自然资源局,四川绵阳621000 [3]西南石油大学地球科学与技术学院,四川成都610500

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2025年第1期62-74,共13页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家重点研发计划专项(2023YFC3006701);中国科学院战略先导专项(A类)(XDA20030302);四川省科技厅重点研发项目(2021YFQ0042);四川省科技厅重点研发项目(2024YFHZ0134)。

摘　　要：山洪灾害极具破坏力,其承灾体的脆弱性是决定灾害破坏程度的重要因素之一。然而目前大多研究都只聚焦于县级以上大尺度评价,其精度不能满足山洪灾害精细化评价工作的需求。为更快、更精准地进行山洪灾害精细化风险控制与管理,以汶川县漩口镇古溪沟为例,利用该地区高精度遥感影像数据,结合实地调查获取的社会经济及人口数据,从暴露度、敏感性和应对力建立指标体系,基于博弈论(game theory,GT)思想,将主观赋权法与客观赋权法组合,构建符合该地区山洪灾害承灾体的脆弱性评价指标体。其中主观赋权法以基于三角模糊数的层次分析法为代表,客观赋权法以基于指标相关性的指标权重确定法为代表,再通过GIS技术,实现了精细像元尺度的山洪灾害脆弱性定量评价。结果表明:主观赋权、客观赋权和组合赋权3种方法在暴露度分析结果上存在较大差异,差异来源于土地利用类型指标的权重大小,而敏感性和应对力分析结果几乎相同,因此脆弱性分布特征在总体上具有较高的一致性;客观赋权与组合赋权法的脆弱性评价结果高度一致,通过对土地利用类型的对比分析,验证了用组合赋权法进行脆弱性评价更为合理且精确;GT结果中,研究区内绝大部分区域为极低脆弱性,高达83%以上,主要是植被覆盖度较高的地区,极高脆弱性区域集中分布在学校、居民区等人口密集的地区,只占了0.4%。The mountain flood disaster is extremely destructive,and the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body is one of the major factors that determine the damage degree of the disaster.However,most of current studies only focus on large-scale evaluation above the county level,lacking accuracy for fine evaluation of mountain flood disasters.In order to control and manage the refined risk of mountain flood disasters more quickly and accurately,this article takes Guxi Gully in Xuankou Town,Wenchuan County as an example,using high-precision remote sensing image data from this region,combined with socioeconomic and demographic data from field surveys.Based on the idea of game theory(GT),the subjective and objective weighting methods are combined to establish an evaluation index system for the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body in this region,which is in line with the exposure,sensitivity,and coping capacity.The subjective weighting method is represented by the triangular fuzzy number-based analytic hierarchy process,while the objective weighting method is represented by the criteria importance through intercriteria correlation.By using GIS technology,a quantitative evaluation of flash flood disaster vulnerability at fine pixel scale was achieved.The results found that there were significant differences in the exposure analysis results among the three methods of subjective,objective and combined weighting,and the differences came from the weight of land use type indicators,while the sensitivity and coping capacity analysis results were almost the same,so the vulnerability distribution characteristics were generally high consistent.The results of vulnerability assessment by the objective weighting method and the combined weighting method were highly consistent.Through comparative analysis of land use types,it was verified that the combination weighting method is more reasonable and accurate for vulnerability assessment.In the result of GT,the majority of the areas in the study area were extremely low vulnerability,u

关 键 词：山洪灾害 承灾体脆弱性 精细化评价 组合赋权 古溪沟 

分 类 号：P954[天文地球—自然地理学] X141[环境科学与工程—环境科学]