实物期权理论视角下中国企业在“一带一路”沿线国家的投资价值  

The investment value in countries along the Belt and Road for Chinese firms from the perspective of real options theory

作　　者：周超 ZHOU Chao(South China Agricultural University,Guangzhou 510642)

机构地区：[1]华南农业大学,广东广州510642

出　　处：《财贸研究》2025年第1期55-70,共16页Finance and Trade Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“实物期权视角下中国企业在‘一带一路’沿线国家的投资价值:形成机制与影响因素研究”(72102075);广东省哲学社会科学规划青年项目“人民币汇率双向波动背景下我国农业产业链的外汇风险评估与应对策略研究”(GD23YYJ26);广州市科学技术局基础与应用基础研究专题项目“人民币汇率双向波动背景下我国农业产业链的外汇风险暴露特征及其影响因素”(SL2024A04J02021)。

摘　　要：基于2000—2021年中国制造业上市公司数据,从实物期权理论视角对中国企业在“一带一路”沿线国家的投资价值进行理论和实证分析,研究发现:中国企业在“一带一路”沿线国家投资可显著降低其业绩下行风险并提升其业绩上行潜力。机制分析表明:上述影响是由于投资“一带一路”沿线国家构建的全球经营网络有助于企业增强成本控制能力和市场需求可持续性。异质性分析表明:CEO具有海外背景的企业、民营企业、传统制造企业和东部地区企业在“一带一路”沿线国家投资对业绩下行风险的降低作用和对业绩上行潜力的提升作用更强。“一带一路”倡议的政策效应分析表明,倡议的实施有助于提升中国企业在“一带一路”沿线国家投资对业绩下行风险的降低作用。研究结果从实物期权理论视角为中国政府和企业推动“一带一路”建设高质量发展提供了新的理论与经验支持。Based on the data of Chinese listed manufacturing firms over the period of 2000 to 2021,this study discusses the investment value of Chinese firms in countries along the Belt and Road from the perspective of real options theory.Theoretical and empirical analysis shows that the investment in countries along the Belt and Road could help Chinese firms to reduce their downside risk and improve their upside potential.Mechanism analysis shows that the above impact is due to the fact that the global business network established by investing in countries along the Belt and Road helps firms enhance their cost-control capabilities and the sustainability of market demand.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the investment in countries along the Belt and Road for firms with CEOs having overseas background,private firms,traditional manufacturing firms and firms in the eastern region of China has a stronger effect on reducing downside risk and improving upside potential.The policy effect analysis of the Belt and Road initiative shows that the implementation of the initiative helps to improve the role of Chinese firms’investment in countries along the Belt and Road to reduce the downside risk.This study provides new theoretical and empirical support for the Chinese government and firms to promote the high-quality development of the Belt and Road construction from the perspective of real options theory.

关 键 词：“一带一路” 实物期权理论 业绩下行风险 业绩上行潜力 跨国投资 

分 类 号：F275.5[经济管理—企业管理]