暴雨型洪涝灾害短临预警方法研究——以英德市为例  

Refined short-term warning method for heavy rainfall-induced flood disasters:A case study of Yingde City

作　　者：侯寓群 戴黎航 Hou Yuqun;Dai Lihang(Wuhan University,Wuhan 430070,China;Hubei Institute of Urban Geological Engineering,Wuhan 430050,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学,湖北武汉430070 [2]武汉地质勘察基础工程有限公司,湖北武汉430050

出　　处：《资源环境与工程》2025年第1期60-68,共9页Resources Environment & Engineering

摘　　要：洪涝灾害作为中国仅次于干旱的第二大气象灾害,对经济社会发展构成重大威胁。以广东省英德市为例,提出一种精细化的暴雨型洪涝灾害短临预警方法,旨在提高灾害预警的准确性和时效性。研究首先采用PredRNN时空序列预测模型对特定地区的降雨量进行精确预测,然后结合数字高程模型(DEM)数据,模拟产汇流过程,最后通过构建综合评估指标体系,采用层次分析法(AHP)确定各指标权重,实现对洪涝灾害的精细化临灾预警。结果表明,该方法能够准确预测降雨量分布,模拟出可能发生的洪涝情景,判断各地区灾害风险性,为地方政府和相关部门提供科学依据,支持其在灾害发生前采取有效措施,确保及时开展防灾、救灾工作,最大限度地降低灾害带来的损失。本研究提出的预警方法不仅具有理论创新价值,还具备广泛的应用前景,可为其他易受洪涝灾害影响的地区提供有益借鉴。Flood disaster ranks as the second most significant meteorological disaster after drought,posing a major threat to economic and social development.This paper proposes a refined short-term warning method for heavy rainfall-induced flood disasters,taking Yingde City,Guangdong Province,as an example,aiming to improve the accuracy and timeliness of disaster warnings.The study first uses the PredRNN spatiotemporal sequence prediction model to accurately predict rainfall in specific areas.Then,it combines digital elevation model(DEM)data to simulate runoff processes.Finally,by constructing a comprehensive evaluation index system and using the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)to determine the weight of each indicator,the study achieves refined pre-disaster warning for flood disasters.The experimental results show that this method can accurately predict the distribution of rainfall,simulate the possible flood scenarios,judge the risk of disasters in various regions,provide scientific basis for local governments and relevant departments,and support effective measures before disasters occur,so as to ensure timely disaster prevention and relief work and minimize the losses caused by disasters.The warning method proposed in this study not only has theoretical innovation value but also has broad application prospects,providing useful references for other areas prone to flood disasters.

关 键 词：暴雨型洪涝灾害 短临预警 PredRNN模型 产汇流模拟 风险评估 英德市 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]