中小板上市企业管理者过度自信与债务违约风险——以长城影视为例  

Overconfidence of Managers of Small and Medium-Sized Board Listed Companies and Debt Default Risk:Taking Great Wall Film and TV as an Example

作　　者：容进雨 黄锡云 Jinyu Rong;Xiyun Huang(China-ASEAN School of Economics,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China)

机构地区：[1]广西大学中国-东盟经济学院,广西南宁530004

出　　处：《财务与金融》2024年第6期51-59,共9页Accounting and Finance

摘　　要：2004年以来,中小板上市企业在我国经济发展中发挥着越来越重要的作用。然而,中小板上市企业始终面临着融资困难和内部治理不完善等挑战,违约风险逐渐成为制约其发展的一个难题,而管理者过度自信会对公司的经营决策和违约风险产生较大影响。选取长城影视作为案例,基于行为金融学理论、委托代理理论和高阶梯队理论,采用高管持股比例法、并购频率法、溢价并购法,分析中小板上市企业管理者过度自信与违约风险的关系。研究发现,过度自信的管理者会通过投资、融资、并购和违规行为等途径影响企业的经营活动以及战略决策,导致企业违约风险上升甚至陷入财务困境。为了有效防范管理者过度自信带来的违约风险,企业应建立管理者自信度监测机制,构建结构化的风险预警系统,优化债务结构与融资策略。Since 2004,SME-listed companies have played an increasingly important role in China's economic development.However,these companies always face challenges such as financing difficulties and imperfect internal governance,and default risk has gradually become a difficult problem restricting their development,while managers'overconfidence will have a greater impact on the company's business decisions and default risk.Taking Great Wall Film and Television as a case study,based on behavioral finance theory,principal-agent theory and upper echelons theory,the relationship between the overconfidence of managers and the default risk of listed companies on the SME board is analyzed by using the executive shareholding ratio method,the merger and acquisition frequency method,and the premium merger and acquisition method.It is found that overconfident managers influence the business activities as well as strategic decisions of the enterprise through investment,financing,mergers and acquisitions,and irregularities,which leads to the rise of default risk and even financial difficulties of the enterprise.In order to effectively prevent the default risk caused by overconfident managers,enterprises should establish a monitoring mechanism for managerial confidence,build a structured risk warning system,and optimize the debt structure and financing strategy.

关 键 词：中小板上市企业 管理者过度自信 违约风险 

分 类 号：F272[经济管理—企业管理]