未来气候变化情景下浙江省陆地生态系统碳汇估算与保护区识别  

Estimation of terrestrial ecosystem carbon sinks and identification of carbon sink conservation areas under future climate change scenarios: A case study of Zhejiang province

作　　者：王田雨 岳文泽[1] 黄波 钟鹏宇 WANG Tianyu;YUE Wenze;HUANG Bo;ZHONG Pengyu(School of Public Affairs,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China;Department of Geography,University of Hong Kong,Hong Kong 999077,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学公共管理学院,杭州310058 [2]香港大学地理系,中国香港999077

出　　处：《地理学报》2025年第1期183-199,共17页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(21ZDA064)。

摘　　要：通过优化国土空间布局促进陆地生态系统减排增汇,从而推动碳中和目标实现是切实可行的方案。然而,如何在区域尺度上精确识别陆地生态系统碳汇水平及其空间分异特征,继而采取有效的国土空间开发保护调控措施,还存在许多尚未解决的问题。为此,本文以浙江省为例,采用集成生物圈模型(IBIS),实现公里网格精度下陆地生态系统碳汇模拟,并且基于未来不同气候变化情景下的模拟结果,识别并划定了碳汇保护区空间范围。结果表明,碳汇保护区内陆地生态系统固碳优势明显,其内部林地、灌木和草地系统的单位面积净生态系统生产力(NEP)均值分别比外部同类生态系统NEP值高出15%、10%和5%左右。当面临中等及以上社会脆弱性以及辐射强迫情景时,碳汇保护区固碳优势进一步提升。此外,通过将碳汇保护区与研究区现有生态保护红线进行比较,发现有超过一半的区域尚未被纳入生态保护红线范畴。相较于生态保护红线,碳汇保护区范围内的NEP总量每年预计将高出超过7 MtC,同时林地平均碳汇效率高出15~22 gC/m2。本文定量化研究了在国土空间格局优化及现有生态保护红线制度中,加入并强化生态系统碳汇功能考量的重要性和必要性,并提出相应的政策建议。Enhancing the carbon sequestration capabilities of terrestrial ecosystems by optimizing territorial spatial layout is a feasible approach to achieving the"carbon neutrality"goals.However,accurately identifying and characterizing the spatial differentiation of terrestrial ecosystem carbon sinks on a regional scale remains a challenge.As a result,effective territorial spatial management measures have yet to be established.To address this issue,this study uses Zhejiang province as an example,employing the Integrated Biosphere Simulator(IBIS)to simulate terrestrial ecosystem carbon sinks at 1-km grid resolution.Based on simulation results under different future climate change scenarios,we identify and delineate carbon sink conservation areas with adaptive features in response to climate change.The analysis results show that terrestrial ecosystems within carbon sink conservation areas exhibit a significant carbon sequestration advantage.Within these areas,the average Net Ecosystem Productivity(NEP)per unit area of forests,shrubs,and grasslands exceeds approximately 15%,10%,and 5%,respectively.Under medium to high social vulnerability and radiative forcing scenarios,the carbon sequestration advantage of the terrestrial ecosystems within carbon sink conservation areas is further amplified.Additionally,by contrasting the carbon sink conservation areas with the existing Ecological Conservation Redline(ECR)in the study region,it is discovered that more than half of the areas have not yet been incorporated into the ECR.In comparison to the ECR,it is estimated that the total Net Ecosystem Productivity(NEP)within the carbon sink conservation areas is over 7 MtC annually,with the average carbon sequestration efficiency of forested regions surpassing the ECR by 15-22 g C/m2.This study underscores the importance and necessity of integrating and enhancing the consideration of ecosystem carbon sink function in optimizing territorial spatial patterns and existing ECR systems from a quantitative standpoint.Furthermore,we put forward

关 键 词：碳中和 国土空间规划 陆地生态系统碳循环 生态系统过程模型 林地碳汇 生态保护红线 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]