基于多模态超声特征的多维度Logistic回归模型在克罗恩病监测中的应用  

Multidimensional logistic regression model based on multimodal ultrasound features in the prediction of intestinal inflammatory activity and mucosal healing in Crohn's Disease

作　　者：马旦杰 肖丽博 沈嘉 方智芸 MA Danjie;XAIO Libo;SHEN Jia;FANG Zhiyun(The Second Hospital of Jiaxing,Zhejaing 314000,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江省嘉兴市第二医院,嘉兴314000

出　　处：《浙江创伤外科》2025年第2期202-205,共4页Zhejiang Journal of Traumatic Surgery

基　　金：浙江省嘉兴市科技计划项目(民生科技创新研究:2023AD31029)。

摘　　要：目的评估多模态超声参数结合血清学指标及临床活动性评分在克罗恩病(CD)炎症活动评估及黏膜愈合预测中的应用价值,建立Logistic回归模型。方法前瞻性研究32例CD患者(观察组)和40位健康对照。观察组根据内镜表现分为活动期、缓解期、回盲部未达黏膜愈合组及黏膜愈合组。所有受试者接受结肠镜、经腹超声检查及CDAI评分。通过Logistic回归分析建立CD活动性评估和黏膜愈合预测模型,绘制ROC曲线。结果CD活动性评估方程:Logit(P)=-1.841+2.662 Best CDAI评分+3.734超声活动性评估,AUC为0.913。回盲部黏膜愈合预测方程:Logit(P)=3.035-2.975肠壁层次-0.318弹性模量值,AUC为0.887。以P≥0.50为截断值,活动性评估敏感度88.89%、特异度85.71%;黏膜愈合预测敏感度78.95%、特异度76.92%。结论基于超声、剪切波弹性成像及实验室参数的Logistic回归模型在评估CD活动性和预测黏膜愈合方面具有良好的临床应用价值。Objective To evaluate multimodal ultrasound parameters combined with serological indicators and clinical activity scores in assessing inflammation and predicting mucosal healing in Crohn's disease(CD).Methods 32 CD patients and 40 healthy controls were prospective studied.All patients were underwent colonoscopy,transabdominal ultrasound,and CDAI scoring.Logistic regression models were used to analyze the clinical data.Results Two regression equations were established.For CD activity assessment:Logit(P)=-1.841+2.662,Best CDAI score+3.734,AUC of ultrasound activity assessment for prediction probability:0.913.For ileocecal mucosal healing prediction:Logit(P)=3.035-2.975,Intestinal wall stratification:-0.318,AUC of elastic modulus value for prediction probability:0.887.As P≥0.50 as the cutoff value,the sensitivity and specificity of activity assessment were 88.89%and 85.71%,respectively.Ans the sensitivity and specificity of predicting mucosal healing were 78.95%and 76.92%,respectively.Conclusion The developed Logistic regression models using ultrasound,shear wave elastography,and laboratory parameters has good clinical application value in assessing CD activity and predicting endoscopic mucosal healing.

关 键 词：超声检查克罗恩病 活动期 黏膜愈合 

分 类 号：R574.6[医药卫生—消化系统]