考虑地震需求统计不确定性的地铁车站结构地震易损性分析  

Seismic fragility analysis of subway station structures considering statistical uncertainty of seismic demands

作　　者：崔春义[1] 许民泽 许成顺[2] 赵经彤 刘海龙[1] 孟坤 CUI Chunyi;XU Minze;XU Chengshun;ZHAO Jingtong;LIU Haiong;MENG Kun(Department of Civil Engineering,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China;Key Laboratory of Urban Security and Disaster Engineering,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China;College of Transportation,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266590,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学土木工程系,辽宁大连116026 [2]北京工业大学城市与工程安全减灾省部共建教育部重点实验室,北京100124 [3]山东科技大学交通学院,山东青岛266590

出　　处：《岩土工程学报》2025年第3期453-462,共10页Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFB2601102);国家自然科学基金面上项目(52178315,51578100);大连市科技创新基金项目(2022JJ12GX031)。

摘　　要：为避免非完备地震需求样本集所导致的地铁车站结构地震易损性分析认知不确定性,提出了一种可考虑地震需求统计不确定性的地铁车站结构地震易损性分析方法。首先,基于Bootstrap法将有限地震需求样本问题转换为大样本问题;其次,结合最大熵原理和Copula理论构建统计不确定性变量的联合概率分布模型;在此基础上,进一步量化由地震需求统计不确定性所导致的地震易损性水平变异性,并求解得出均值地震易损性曲线以及对应一定置信度的包络地震易损性曲线;最后,以大开地铁车站为具体对象,系统分析了地震需求统计不确定性的影响规律。研究表明:在有限地震需求样本条件下地铁车站结构地震易损性水平具有显著的变异性,且该变异性会随着地震动强度的增加呈现出先增大后减小的变化趋势;均值与包络易损性曲线可有效考虑基于有限地震需求样本的地铁车站结构地震易损性不确定性程度,且具有良好可信度。所提出的相关分析方法和结论可为地铁车站结构抗震性能和地震风险评估提供参考和指导作用。To avoid the epistemic uncertainty for seismic fragility of subway station structures caused by the incomplete seismic demand sample set,a novel procedure of seismic fragility analysis of subway station structures considering the statistical uncertainty of seismic demands is proposed.The limited set of seismic demand samples is firstly converted into a large sample problem based on the Bootstrap method.Then,the joint probability distribution model of statistical uncertainty variables is further established by combining the maximum entropy principle with the copula theory.On this basis,the variability of seismic fragility of subway station structures caused by the statistical uncertainty of seismic demands is further quantified,and the mean fragility curves and envelope fragility curves with certain confidence level are obtained.Finally,the Daikai subway station is taken as the prototype to investigate the influences of the statistical uncertainty.The results show that the seismic fragility of subway station structures derived from the limited seismic demand samples has significant variability which shows a tendency of increase and then decrease with the increase of the ground motion intensity.Moreover,the mean fragility curves and envelope fragility curves can effectively reflect the uncertainty of seismic fragility derived from the limited seismic demand samples,and have higher reliability.It may provide reference and guidance for the seismic performance and seismic risk assessment of subway station structures.

关 键 词：地铁车站结构 地震易损性 认知不确定性 BOOTSTRAP法 最大熵原理 

分 类 号：TU435[建筑科学—岩土工程] TU924[建筑科学—土工工程]