2016—2021年自贡市温度变化对心脑血管疾病死亡的影响  

Effect of temperature variability on the mortality from cardio-cerebrovascular diseases in Zigong City from 2016 to 2021

作　　者：叶丽雯 李阳 师春立 蒋先雁[2] 阮仕娟 文悦 陈煜 黄伟[4] 陈剑宇[2] YE Liwen;LI Yang;SHI Chunli;JIANG Xianyan;RUAN Shijuan;WEN Yue;CHEN Yu;HUANG Wei;CHEN Jianyu(School of Public Health,Chengdu Medical College,Chengdu 610500,Sichuan Province,China;Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chengdu 610041,Sichuan Province,China;School of Big Health and Intelligent Engineering,Chengdu Medical College,Chengdu 610500,Sichuan Province,China;Zigong Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Zigong 643000,Sichuan Province,China)

机构地区：[1]成都医学院公共卫生学院,成都610500 [2]四川省疾病预防控制中心,成都610041 [3]成都医学院大健康与智能工程学院,成都610500 [4]自贡市疾病预防控制中心,四川自贡643000

出　　处：《预防医学情报杂志》2025年第2期235-244,263,共11页Journal of Preventive Medicine Information

基　　金：国家科技部科技基础资源调查专项(项目编号:2017FY101200);四川省疾病预防控制中心自主科研资助项目(项目编号:ZX202304);四川省疾病预防控制中心自主科研资助项目(ZX202415);四川省卫生健康委员会干部保健专项资助项目(项目编号:川干研ZH2018-1801)。

摘　　要：目的探讨温度变化(temperature variability,TV)对因心脑血管疾病死亡的影响,为季节变化调整疾病防控策略提供依据。方法收集四川省自贡市2016年1月1日到2021年12月31日的气象数据、人口死亡数据,建立拟合分布滞后非线性模型分析TV对人群因心脑血管疾病死亡的影响效应,使用R 4.3.2软件进行数据分析,检验水准为α=0.05。结果TV每上升1℃,心脑血管疾病死亡率上升5.339%(95%CI:2.956%~7.778%)。各年龄亚组中,65岁以下人群、65~74岁人群、75岁及以上人群中TV对因心脑血管系统疾病死亡的影响效应分别为6.794%(95%CI:1.004%~12.916%)、7.636%(95%CI:2.539%~12.986%)和4.345%(95%CI:1.564%~7.201%);性别亚组中,女性和男性群体中TV对因心脑血管系统疾病死亡的影响效应分别为5.637%(95%CI:2.311%~9.072%)、5.044%(95%CI:1.951%~8.232%);各季节中,TV对因心脑血管系统疾病死亡的影响效应主要集中在热季和温季,分别为5.018%(95%CI:0.255%~10.006%)、6.156%(95%CI:0.869%~11.720%);各个单病种中,高血压性心脏病、出血性脑卒中和缺血性脑卒中为TV的敏感性疾病,各单病种的季节特异性效应各不相同。结论TV对因心脑血管疾病死亡率产生了显著的负面影响,65~≥75岁患者及女性患者为TV的敏感性人群,热季和温季为TV的易感性季节,高血压性心脏病、出血性脑卒中和缺血性脑卒中为TV的敏感性疾病。Objective To explore the effect of temperature variability(TV)on cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease mortality,and to provide basis for adjusting disease prevention and control strategies with seasonal changes.Methods Meteorological data and population mortality data of Zigong City,Sichuan Province were collected from January 1,2016 to December 31,2021,to explore the effect of TV on the mortality of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases by fitting a distributional lag nonlinear model.R 4.3.2 software was used to analyze the data,and the significance level was 0.05.Results The mortality rate of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases increased by 5.339%(95% confidence interval CI:2.956%-7.778%)for every 1oC increase in TV.In each age subgroup,the effects of TV on deaths due to cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were 6.794%(95%CI:1.004%-12.916%),7.636%(95%CI:2.539%-12.986%),and4.345%(95%CI:1.564%-7.201%)in people under 65 years old,people aged 65-74 years,and people aged 75 years and over,respectively.In the gender subgroups,the effects of TV on deaths due to cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were 5.637%(95%CI:2.311%-9.072%)and5.044%(95%CI:1.951%-8.232%)in female and male groups,respectively.For seasons,the TV effects on deaths due to cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were mainly concentrated in hot and warm seasons,which were 5.018%(95%CI:0.255%-10.006%)and 6.156%(95%CI:0.869%-11.720%),respectively.And for each single disease,hypertensive heart disease,hemorrhagic stroke,and ischemic stroke were the sensitive diseases of TV,and season-specific effects of each single disease were different.Conclusions TV exerted a significant negative effect on cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease mortality.People aged 65-74 years and female patients were the sensitive population of TV.Hot and warm seasons were the susceptibility seasons for TV.And hypertensive heart disease,hemorrhagic stroke,and ischemic stroke were the sensitive diseases of TV.

关 键 词：温度变化 心脑血管疾病 死亡率 时间序列分析 

分 类 号：R195.4[医药卫生—卫生统计学] R54[医药卫生—卫生事业管理] R743[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]