经典和对偶共结果效应对前景集结果区间的依赖性:基于概率权重的视角  

The dependence of classic and dual common consequence effects on the choice-set outcome range:From the perspective of probability weights

作　　者：李春好[1] 刘荣媛 刘远豪 LI Chunhao;LIU Rongyuan;LIU Yuanhao(School of Business and Management,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学商学与管理学院,长春130012

出　　处：《心理学报》2025年第3期398-414,I0005,I0006,共19页Acta Psychologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72271108);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(20YJA630028)。

摘　　要：已有研究发现经典共结果效应在窄前景集结果区间不出现,因而认为此时个体的决策行为符合期望效用理论(EUT)。但是,经典共结果效应不出现并不意味着违背EUT的对偶共结果效应也不出现。此外,相关研究普遍采用特定概率水平,未考察概率变化后经典共结果效应是否出现。鉴于此,通过逻辑递进的两项实验探究了三个问题。其一,对偶共结果效应在窄前景集结果区间是否出现以及前景集结果区间变化对其有何影响。其二,概率变化后,经典共结果效应在窄前景集结果区间是否出现。其三,前景集结果区间对两类共结果效应的影响机理。结果发现:(1)对偶共结果效应在窄前景集结果区间不仅存在,且相较于宽前景集结果区间显著增强;(2)相较于宽前景集结果区间,经典共结果效应在窄前景集结果区间显著减弱,但仍然存在;(3)前景集结果区间通过改变个体对客观概率的风险感知(即概率权重)影响两类共结果效应。上述发现不仅驳斥了EUT适用于窄前景集结果区间的观点,揭示了决策偏好对前景集结果区间的依赖性,还从概率权重依赖前景集结果区间的视角为发展累积前景理论等非期望效用理论提供了实证依据。从实践方面,实验发现也为盲盒销售的产品设计及其调整提供了管理启示。Expected utility theory(EUT)was considered capable of aptly explaining individual choice behavior.However,a plethora of research has uncovered phenomena that violate EUT,such as the classic common consequence effect(CCCE)and the dual common consequence effect(DCCE),especially when the choice-set outcome range(COR)is broad.Subsequent scholars have examined the stability of behaviors that violate EUT by conducting empirical studies within a narrow COR.They discovered that CCCE no longer appeared,thereby suggesting that individuals’behaviors conform to EUT under these conditions.Nevertheless,the absence of CCCE does not imply the nonexistence of DCCE.Studies on CCCE with a narrow COR typically employ a specific probability level without exploring whether the effect remains absent under other probability levels.Given these considerations,this study sequentially addresses three questions:first,whether DCCE exists within a narrow COR and how changes in COR influence this effect;second,whether the impact of COR on CCCE is also stably present at other probability levels;and third,what the underlying mechanisms are if changes in COR influence both types of common consequence effects.This study conducted two experiments to address the aforementioned questions.In Experiment 1,a choice task was executed to explore whether the COR affects both types of common consequence effects.This experiment employed a between-subjects design with two experimental groups:the broad-range group and the narrow-range group.A total of 160 participants were recruited for the experiment and were randomly and equally distributed into the two groups.Given that 10 participants failed the attention check,the effective sample sizes were 74 and 76 for the two groups,respectively.The experimental materials for both groups were consistent in terms of probability values.Meanwhile,the outcome values for the broad-range group were 100 times those of the narrow-range group.The Conlisk-z test method was utilized to analyze the occurrence of CCCE and DCCE.Fu

关 键 词：风险决策 共结果效应 对偶共结果效应 前景集结果区间 概率权重 

分 类 号：B842[哲学宗教—基础心理学]