中国货币政策传导效应:统筹发展与安全视角  

The Transmission Effect of China’s Monetary Policy:From the Perspective of Overall Development and Security

作　　者：尚玉皇[1] 张皓越 董青马[1] SHANG Yu-huang;ZHANG Hao-yue;DONG Qing-ma(Institute of Chinese Financial Studies,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学中国金融研究院

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2025年第1期24-42,共19页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“数字金融场景下利率期限结构的混频机制及宏观经济效应研究”(批准号72473113);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“数字金融与金融安全问题研究”(批准号22JJD790069);研究阐释金融强国建设专项项目“统筹金融开放与安全的理论机制及对策研究”(批准号JBKZD06005)。

摘　　要：近年来极端风险事件频发,发挥货币政策功能保障经济高质量发展与高水平金融安全的重要性愈发凸显。本文在极端风险场景中引入金融安全隐患等信息构建理论模型,基于统筹发展与安全的逻辑阐释货币政策传导机制;同时,基于“在险增长”框架,提出一种全新的分位数因子增广向量自回归(QFAVAR)模型进行实证检验。研究发现:(1)价格型和数量型货币政策在不同经济增长和通胀状态上具有非对称性且存在“匹配效应”。价格型工具主要影响通胀上行风险;而数量型工具更注重防范经济下行风险。(2)在极端风险时期,两类政策工具的传导效果显著提升,并表现出结构依赖的特征,有效缓解了经济增长的下行风险并抑制通胀风险,且利率传导渠道愈发畅通。(3)受政策调控周期影响,两类政策工具对在险增长和在险通胀的风险冲击具有非对称性。数量型工具短期内能缓解经济增速的下行风险,但长期可能增加上行风险;而价格型工具传导效果具有时滞性。(4)在险金融形势指数(FCI)较好地反映了中国金融安全状况的波动特征,为宏观经济走势提供前瞻性信息,尤其是极端风险时期。(5)在极端风险时期,中国货币政策发挥了良好的金融稳定效应。数量型工具在金融状况良好时对维护金融安全有积极作用;而价格型工具在金融状况恶化时可以缓解金融安全的下行风险。本文有助于认识极端风险视域下的货币政策传导效应,为构建兼顾“防风险”和“稳增长”双重目标的货币政策框架提供经验支持。In recent years,extreme risk events have occurred frequently,and the importance of ensuring high-quality economic development and high-level financial security has become increasingly prominent.When facing extreme risks,the central bank needs to formulate precise monetary policies timely to alleviate the crisis.Therefore,from the perspective of coordinated development and security,exploring the transmission mechanism and effect of monetary policy on economic growth under extreme risk conditions has become an important issue that urgently needs to be addressed.For a long time,relevant research has mainly focused on monetary policy issues during periods of economic normal,revolving around the“expected values”of macroeconomic variables.In fact,compared to policy adjustments during periods of stable economic operation,the real challenge faced by central banks is to deal with the impact of rare extreme events.There is a lack of empirical methods and analytical paradigms to scientifically evaluate the regulatory effects of monetary policy under extreme risk conditions.This article introduces forward-looking financial information and extreme risk factors into the theoretical model and constructs an extended IS-LM model.This article proposes a new quantile factor augmented model(QFAVAR)under the“risk framework”,which expands the research paradigm for evaluating the transmission effect of monetary policy under extreme risk conditions.The results of this article are as follows.The transmission effects of price-based and quantity-based monetary policies on economic growth and inflation are asymmetric under different economic growth and inflation states,and the two have a“matching effect”.Focusing on extreme risk periods,the transmission effects of China’s quantity-and price-based monetary policies have significantly improved.The coordination of quantity-and price-based monetary policies effectively mitigates the downside risks of economic growth and suppresses the upside and downside risks of inflation.As inte

关 键 词：货币政策 经济增长 金融安全 分位数因子增广向量自回归模型 在险金融形势指数 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]