西部陆海新通道陆路物流网络格局演变模拟与比较分析  

Simulation and comparative analysis of the change of land logistics network configuration in the new western land-sea corridor

作　　者：张扬[1,2,3] 杨成超 王兴平 张广霞[4] 李娟 ZHANG Yang;YANG Chengchao;WANG Xingping;ZHANG Guangxia;LI Juan(College of Geography and Planning,Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu 610059,China;Digital Hu Line Research Institute,Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu 610059,China;School of Architecture,Southeast University,Nanjing 210096,China;History,Culture and Tourism School,Fuyang Normal University,Fuyang 236037,Anhui,China)

机构地区：[1]成都理工大学地理与规划学院,成都610059 [2]成都理工大学数字胡焕庸线研究院,成都610059 [3]东南大学建筑学院,南京210096 [4]阜阳师范大学历史文化与旅游学院,安徽阜阳236037

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2025年第1期34-48,共15页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目(22AZD052)。

摘　　要：随着中国与东南亚等地区经贸合作更加紧密,加快西部陆海新通道建设,提升物流发展质量和效率,对于推动中国西部内陆地区经济发展和高水平对外开放具有重要意义。论文以西部陆海新通道核心覆盖区30个城市单元为研究区,基于长时间序列统计数据,应用BP神经网络模型预测西部陆海新通道主通道建成后各城市铁路、高速公路物流量,利用改进引力模型模拟未来通道能力条件下各城市间物流联系量,并借助社会网络分析方法开展西部陆海新通道建成前后铁路、高速公路物流网络结构比较分析。研究表明:①西部陆海新通道建设有助于缩短核心覆盖区城市间铁路和高速公路距离,提高各城市的货运总量;②西部陆海新通道建成后,防城港、昆明等面向东南亚的海港、陆港城市与重庆及各省会城市间的物流联系得以较大程度强化,并促进各类货物流向一般地级市,物流网络格局呈现层级化和一体化发展的特点;③无论是距离缩减效应、货运量变化还是物流网络结构变化,西部陆海新通道的建设对铁路物流网络的影响均强于高速公路物流网络。通过对比新道建设前后陆路物流网络格局变化,可为优化通道布局、升级物流网络及促进区域经济高质量发展提供科学参考。As China's economic and trade cooperation with Southeast Asia and other regions becomes increasingly close,accelerating the construction of the new western land-sea corridor and enhancing the quality and efficiency of logistics development is of great significance for promoting economic development and high-level opening-up in the inland areas of western China.This study focused on 30 urban units within the core coverage area of the new western land-sea corridor.Based on long-term statistical data,it employed the back propagation(BP)neural network model to predict the railway and highway freight volumes of each city after the completion of the main corridor.An improved gravity model was used to simulate the freight connections between cities under future corridor capacity conditions.Additionally,social network analysis was applied to compare the railway and highway logistics network structures before and after the completion of the corridor.The results indicate that:1)The construction of the new western land-sea corridor helps reduce the railway and highway distances between cities in the core coverage area,increasing the total freight volume of each city.2)Upon completion of the corridor,logistics connections between seaports and landports,such as Fangchenggang and Kunming facing Southeast Asia,and cities such as Chongqing and various provincial capitals,will be significantly strengthened.This will also promote the flow of goods to prefecture-level cities,leading to a hierarchical and integrated development pattern in the logistics network.3)In terms of the distance reduction effect,changes in freight volume,and shifts in logistics network structure,the construction of the corridor has a stronger impact on the railway logistics network compared to the highway network.By comparing the changes in land logistics network patterns before and after the construction of the corridor,this study provides scientific insights for optimizing corridor layout,upgrading logistics networks,and promoting high-quality regional eco

关 键 词：物流网络 BP神经网络 改进引力模型 社会网络分析 西部陆海新通道 

分 类 号：F25[经济管理—国民经济]