黑龙江省主要木质林产品进口贸易波动分析  

Analysis on Import Trade Fluctuations of Major Wood Forest Products in Heilongjiang Province

作　　者：刘芳菲 曹嘉鹤 吴金卓[1] LIU Fang-fei;CAO Jia-he;WU Jin-zhuo(School of Civil Engineering and Transportation,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,Heilongjiang,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学土木与交通学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《林产工业》2025年第2期71-77,共7页China Forest Products Industry

基　　金：黑龙江省经济社会发展重点研究课题(22202)。

摘　　要：为分析近年来黑龙江省主要木质林产品进口贸易现状及其波动成因,本文基于联合国商品贸易统计数据库、我国海关统计数据在线查询平台、、黑龙江省统计年鉴(2017—2022年)数据,从贸易规模、产品结构、市场结构三方面分析黑龙江省主要木质林产品进口贸易现状,并采用恒定市场份额模型剖析黑龙江省主要木质林产品进口波动成因。结果表明:2017—2022年,在中美贸易摩擦和新冠肺炎疫情的双重影响下,黑龙江省主要木质林产品进口贸易规模呈波动增长趋势,进口产品结构以资源密集型产品为主,进口市场结构多元化,其中俄罗斯是最主要的进口市场。黑龙江省主要木质林产品进口波动受市场吸引力、国际市场贸易规模、市场结构等多重因素影响。其中,疫情爆发后黑龙江省木质林产品进口贸易在国际市场上的吸引力增强对进口起到显著促进作用,但市场结构不合理一定程度上阻碍了黑龙江省木质林产品进口。因此,应从完善市场结构、优化产品结构和进一步提升市场吸引力三个方面着手,适当调整进口贸易政策,促进黑龙江省木质林产品贸易可持续发展。In order to analyze the current situation and the causes of the import trade fluctuations of major wood forest products in Heilongjiang Province in recent years,in this paper,based on the data of the UN Comtrade Database,the China Customs Statistics Online Query Platform and Heilongjiang Statistical Yearbook(from 2017 to 2022),the current situation of import trade of the major wood forest products in Heilongjiang Province were analyzed from three aspects:trade scale,product structure and market structure,and the Constant Market Share Model was used to analyze the causes of the import fluctuations of the major wood forest products in Heilongjiang Province.The results showed that from 2017 to 2022,under the dual influence of Sino-US trade frictions and the COVID-19,the import trade scale of major wood forest products in Heilongjiang Province still showed a fluctuating growth trend,and the structure of imported products was dominated by resource-intensive products,and the import market structure was diversified,among which Russia was the main import market.The import fluctuations of major wood forest products in Heilongjiang Province was affected by multiple factors such as market attractiveness,international market trade scale,and market structure,among which the increased attractiveness of the import trade of wood forest products in Heilongjiang Province in the international market played a significant role in promoting imports,but the unreasonable market structure hindered the import of wood forest products in Heilongjiang Province to a certain extent.Therefore,Heilongjiang Province should start from three aspects,including improving the market structure,optimizing the product structure and further enhancing the market attractiveness,appropriately adjust the import trade policy,and promote the sustainable development of the trade of wood forest products in Heilongjiang Province.

关 键 词：木质林产品 进口 贸易 波动 恒定市场份额模型 

分 类 号：TS653[轻工技术与工程] TS396