33个发达国家生态足迹时空演变及影响因素研究  

Spatial and Temporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Ecological Footprint in 33 Developed Countries

作　　者：王瑜嘉 张超华 杨光明[4] WANG Yujia;ZHANG Chaohua;YANG Guangming(College of Business and Management,Hunan Agricultural University,Changsha Hunan 410128,P.R.China;College of Business and Management,Queen Mary University of London,London UK 999020;Southwest Forestry University,Kunming Yunnan 650224,P.R.China;Chongqing University of Technology,Chongqing 400054,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]湖南农业大学,湖南长沙410128 [2]伦敦玛丽女王大学,英国伦敦999020 [3]西南林业大学,云南昆明650224 [4]重庆理工大学,重庆400054

出　　处：《西部林业科学》2025年第1期135-143,150,共10页Journal of West China Forestry Science

基　　金：国家林业和草原局发展研究中心资助项目(JYC-2023-0012)。

摘　　要：为揭示不同时空自然资本利用的生态足迹空间分异规律,基于改进模型分析2000-2021年33个发达国家足迹广度、足迹深度和三维生态足迹的时空变化特征,运用Tobit模型分析三维生态足迹影响因素。结果显示:(1)研究区足迹广度差异较大且时空变化明显,拉脱维亚足迹广度连年较高,新加坡足迹广度连年较低,相差较大。(2)研究区足迹深度差距较小,多数国家集中在1.0~1.5之间,少数国家足迹深度较高,发达国家资本存量已被占用,生态可持续发展亟需重视。(3)研究区三维生态足迹全局无显著相关,局部以高—高集聚为主,9个国家无集聚情况。(4)研究区人均生态足迹变化趋势可分为显著上升、基本平稳和显著下降3种类型,其中显著下降国家数量占总体近一半。(5)研究区人均生态足迹主要受NPP、贸易占GDP的百分比、可再生能源占能源消费总量的比重、生态承载力(全球公顷)的正向促进影响,受人均GDP、工业增加值(占GDP的百分比)、城镇常住人口占总人口的反向抑制影响。To unveil spatial differentiation patterns of natural capital utilization across temporal-spatial dimensions,this study employs an enhanced model to analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of footprint breadth,footprint depth,and three-dimensional ecological footprint(EF3D)in 33 developed countries from 2000 to 2021,with Tobit regression modeling applied to identify influencing factors.Key findings reveal:(1)Significant spatial-temporal variations in footprint breadth across six temporal nodes,with Latvia maintaining consistently high values and Singapore persistently low values,demonstrating pronounced disparity.(2)Footprint depth exhibits limited variation among nations,predominantly ranging 1.0-1.5,though select countries display elevated values,indicating overutilization of natural capital stocks and urgent need for ecological sustainability measures.(3)EF3D demonstrates insignificant global spatial autocorrelation,with local spatial patterns dominated by high-high clustering clusters,while nine countries show no spatial aggregation.(4)Per capita ecological footprint trajectories segregate into three distinct categories:significant upward(21.21%),stable(30.30%),and significant downward trends(48.48%).(5)Multivariate analysis identifies net primary productivity(NPP),trade/GDP ratio,renewable energy consumption share,and biocapacity(global hectares)as positive drivers,whereas GDP per capita,industrial value-added/GDP ratio,and urbanization rate exhibit negative inhibitory effects.This comprehensive analysis provides critical insights for optimizing natural capital management and advancing sustainable development in developed economies.

关 键 词：三维生态足迹 足迹广度 足迹深度 发达国家 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]