数字孪生技术赋能应急决策:基于理论与应用的综合分析  

Digital Twin Technology Empowers Emergency Decision-Making:Comprehensive Analysis Based on Theory and Application

作　　者：费立国 李涛 FEI Liguo;LI Tao(Smart State Governance Lab,Shandong University,Qingdao,Shandong,266237,China;School of Political Science and Public Administration,Shandong University,Qingdao,Shandong,266237,China;Institute of social Governance Research,Shandong University,Qingdao,Shandong,266237,China)

机构地区：[1]山东大学智慧国家治理实验室,山东青岛266237 [2]山东大学政治学与公共管理学院,山东青岛266237 [3]山东大学社会治理研究基地,山东青岛266237

出　　处：《行政论坛》2025年第1期161-176,共16页Administrative Tribune

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“人工智能背景下极端灾害救援中社会应急力量精准配置策略研究”(24YJC630042);国家重点研发计划(政府间国际科技创新合作专项)“中巴南沿海地区气候风险治理、适应和多层次韧性建设研究”(2024YFE0106600)。

摘　　要：在数智化背景下,数字孪生技术的引入为应急决策提供了创新的支持工具,推动政府治理朝着更加智能化、精细化的方向发展。在理论层面,决策理论和系统理论为数字孪生技术赋能应急决策提供了理论基础,数字孪生技术应用中信息损失转变为信息涌现则体现了决策理论与系统理论的有机结合。在应用层面,数据与智能化决策的结合为公共危机管理提供了全新的思路,信息涌现模型将在应急决策中发挥更为核心的作用;数字孪生技术的信息集成与仿真应用,应急决策的信息损失模型和信息涌现模型,进一步表明了数字孪生技术赋能应急决策的独特优势。当前,数字孪生技术在应急决策应用中还面临数据汲取与安全风险、模型可靠性与准确性风险、高开发成本与高运营成本挑战、技术协同与组织协作挑战等。未来,数字孪生技术赋能应急决策应注重提升数据汲取的准确性与安全性、增强模型可靠性与更新能力、推进数字孪生技术普及化与降低成本、促进技术成熟与组织协作。Under the backdrop of digitalization and intelligentization,the introduction of digital twin technology provides innovative support tool for emergency decision-making and promotes the development of government governance in a great intelligence and refined direction.At the theoretical level,Decision Theory and System Theory provide a foundational basis for digital twin technology to empower emergency decision-making.The transformation from information loss to information emergence through the application of digital twin technology reflects the organic combination of Decision Theory and System Theory.At the application level,the integration of data and intelligent decision-making offers a new approach to public crisis management,with the information emergence model will playing a more central role in emergency decision-making.The information integration and simulation applications of digital twin technology,along with the information loss and information emergence models in emergency decision-making,further demonstrate the unique advantages of digital twin technology in empowering emergency decision-making.Currently,digital twin technology in emergency decision-making applications still face data acquisition and security risks,model reliability and accuracy risks,high development and operating costs challenges,and technological and organizational collaboration challenges.In the future,the empowerment of emergency decision-making by digital twin technology should focus on improving the accuracy and security of data acquisition,strengthening the reliability and update capabilities of the models,promote the widespread adoption of digital twin technology and reduce costs,as well as fostering technological maturity and organizational collaboration.

关 键 词：数字技术 数字孪生技术 应急决策 应急管理 

分 类 号：D630.8[政治法律—政治学] TP18[政治法律—中外政治制度]