未来变化环境下汉江中下游地区需水量预测  

Prediction of water demand in middle and lower reaches of Hanjiang River Basin under future changing environments

作　　者：田晶 潘正可 郭生练[2] 李书飞 刘宝库 TIAN Jing;PAN Zhengke;GUO Shenglian;LI Shufei;LIU Baoku(Changjiang Survey,Planning,Design and Research Co.Ltd.,Wuhan 430014,China;State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司,湖北武汉430014 [2]武汉大学水资源工程与调度全国重点实验室,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《人民长江》2025年第2期106-114,共9页Yangtze River

基　　金：湖北省自然科学基金青年项目(2024AFB490);长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司科研项目(CX2021Z10-2)。

摘　　要：在气候变化和人类活动共同驱动的双重影响下,开展需水预测研究对优化水资源管理、促进社会经济可持续发展至关重要。大多数现有研究忽视了需水预测过程中的各种影响因子及其内在联系。考虑未来气候变化与人类活动的影响,并以汉江中下游地区为研究对象,采用DBC偏差校正方法和CA-Markov模型分别预测了流域未来的气候变化和土地利用/覆被变化情景,然后基于2010~2016年第三次水资源调查评价数据,采用系统动力学的方法建立了未来气候变化与人类活动不同组合情景下的流域未来需水量预测模型。研究结果表明:①在未来气候变化与未来土地利用/覆被变化及经济高速发展情景组合下,预测到2035水平年,汉江中下游地区的河道外需水量将达97.59亿m 3。②农业灌溉是气候变化下最敏感的用水需求部门。未来气候变化情景(S1)影响下,生活需水量、农业灌溉需水量的预测值与现状气候保持情景(S3)相比将分别增加2.38%、5.53%。③在综合发展情景(S6)下,与历史时期相比,农业灌溉需水有小幅度的减少,生活和工业需水分别有小幅度、较大幅度的增加。建立的系统动力学模型也适用于其他流域的需水量预测,可为变化环境下水资源的供需分析提供科学依据和参考。Under the dual influence of climate change and human activities,research on water demand prediction is critical for optimizing water resource management and promoting sustainable socio-economic development.Most of the existing studies have overlooked various influencing factors and their complex interactions in the process of water demand prediction.This study addresses these gaps by incorporating the impacts of future climate change and human activities,with a focus on the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin as the case study.The DBC method and CA-Markov model were employed to predict future climate change and land use/cover change scenarios,respectively.Subsequently,based on the evaluation data of the third water resources survey from 2010 to 2016,the system dynamics model was applied to predict future water demand under various combinations of future climate change and human activity scenarios.Results revealed that:①Under the combined scenario of future climate change,land use/cover change,and rapid economic development,the off-channel water demand in the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin is projected to reach 9.759 billion m 3 by the 2035 target year.②Agricultural irrigation is the most sensitive water demand sector under climate change.Under projected future climate scenario(S1),domestic water demand and agricultural water demand are expected to increase by 2.38%and 5.53%,respectively,compared to the baseline climate scenario(S3).③Under comprehensive development scenario(S6),agricultural water demand is predicted to decrease slightly,while domestic water demand and industrial water demand are expected to increase moderately and significantly,respectively.The system dynamics model established in this study is applicable to water demand projections in other basins and can provide scientific basis for analyzing water supply and demand in changing environments.

关 键 词：需水量预测 未来气候变化 未来土地利用/覆被变化 系统动力学 汉江中下游地区 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]